I. Latest market situation
Ethereum is fluctuating between 1750 and 1850 USD today. It peaked at 1836 USD yesterday before dropping back above 1750, clearly indicating a stalemate between buyers and sellers. Since the low of 1385 USD on April 6, it has increased by 26%. The short-term trend still looks bullish, but be careful as it can easily fall from a high position.
II. Why is it rising?
Supportive policies: The U.S. government officially recognizes Bitcoin and Ethereum as reserve assets, boosting everyone’s confidence.
Technical upgrades: The Pectra upgrade is set to launch tomorrow, reducing transaction fees to under 1 cent and increasing processing speed to 20,000 transactions per second—this is a significant enhancement.
Large institutions entering: Firms like Goldman Sachs are aggressively buying Ethereum ETFs, pouring real capital into it.
III. Key price level reference
Supportable price levels:
1750-1760 USD: It has bounced back each time it has dropped to this level recently, serving as a bullish defense line.
1720 USD: The middle line in the weekly chart; breaking it may trigger a sell-off.
Resistible price levels:
1850 USD: Recent high point pressure; if it breaks through, it may head straight for 1930 USD (the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level).
2000-2200 USD: Psychological barrier; we need to see if policies and upgrade effects can be strong.
IV. How to operate
Short-term operation:
Buy up: Enter lightly in the 1750-1760 range, run quickly if it drops below 1720, aim first for 1850, and hold if it breaks through to 1930.
Buy down: If it drops below 1720 and doesn't bounce back, you can short with a small position, aiming for the 1680-1700 range, with a stop loss above 1750.
Long-term layout:
Bottom fishing opportunity: If it can drop below 1700, you can build a position in batches. Keep a close eye on upgrade effects and the approval of pledge-type ETFs, with a long-term view of 2000+.
Insurance measures: Buy put options at 1700 or long volatility index to prevent sudden black swan events.
V. Risks to pay attention to
Technical indicators: The RSI is currently stagnant; if it cannot break through the 50 midline, a pullback may occur.
Policy changes: If the Federal Reserve delays interest rate cuts until June, all investment products will suffer.
Ecological risks: Recently, the income of Ethereum Layer 2 networks has plummeted by 95%; we need to see if the upgrades can bring in real users.
VI. Summary
Ethereum is currently at a critical position. In the short term, we need to see if it can break through 1850; in the long term, we need to observe the upgrade effects and whether institutional funds continue to enter the market. It is recommended to use 60% of funds for a base position and keep 20% for flexible operations. Key support levels can be bought up appropriately, but always monitor policy directions and on-chain data changes, and don't put all your eggs in one basket.
The market is constantly changing, so focus on real-time information.
Personal opinion, not investment advice.
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