Here is a detailed assessment of the potential of The Open Network ($TON ) for 2025, considering its fundamentals, adoption, and macroeconomic trends.
1. Context and Fundamentals of TON
- Origin: Initially launched by Telegram before regulatory issues, TON is now supported by the community (TON Foundation).
- Technology: Scalable blockchain (sharding, PoS) with minimal fees and high speed (≈100k theoretical TPS).
- Use cases: Focus on payments, Web3 services, and integration with messaging apps (Telegram has 900M+ users).
2. Key Factors for 2025
a) Adoption by Telegram
- Mini-apps and payments: The native integration of TON into Telegram (e.g., payment buttons, crypto bots) could explode its adoption.
- Non-crypto users: The ease of access via Telegram attracts a critical mass of novice users.
b) Ecosystem Growth
- Grants and developers: The TON Foundation allocates millions to incentivize projects (DeFi, Gaming, SocialFi).
- Partnerships: Collaborations with giants like Tencent Cloud or Animoca Brands to boost infrastructure.
c) Competition and Positioning
- Vs Solana, Ethereum: TON differentiates itself through its link with Telegram (massive distribution) and scalability.
- Closed network: Relative centralization of validators (decentralization risk to monitor).
d) Regulation
- Compliance: TON avoids past mistakes (Telegram's ICO blocked by the SEC) and relies on a regulated model.
- Risks: If Telegram is targeted by regulators, TON could suffer.
3. Technical Analysis and Price in 2025
Bullish Scenario (Optimistic)
- Conditions:
- Strong adoption via Telegram (50M+ active wallets).
- Success of mini-apps (games, SocialFi).
- Crypto market in a bull run (Bitcoin ETF, etc.).
- Price: $15–$30 (market cap of $50–100B if TON becomes a top 5 crypto).
Bearish Scenario (Pessimistic)
- Conditions:
- Failure of adoption by Telegram users.
- Overwhelming competition (Solana, Ethereum L2).
- Regulatory crackdown.
- Price: $3–$5 (stagnation around 2024 levels).
Realistic Scenario (Base Case)
- Price: $8–$12 (organic growth with gradual adoption).
4. Metrics to Watch
- Number of active wallets on TON (goal: 10M+ in 2025).
- TVL (Total Value Locked) in TON DeFi.
- Major integrations in Telegram (e.g., stablecoins, marketplace).
5. Main Risks
- Dependence on Telegram: If Telegram reduces its support, TON loses its advantage.
- Liquidity: The TON token market is less liquid than BTC/ETH.
- Centralization: The TON Foundation controls a significant share of validators.
Conclusion
TON has disruptive potential in 2025 thanks to its direct access to millions of Telegram users. Its success will depend on:
1. The ability to convert Telegram users into blockchain users.
2. The maturation of its ecosystem (DeFi, NFT, gaming).
3. A macro context favorable to cryptos.
Recommendation:
- Long term: Gradual accumulation if belief in adoption via Telegram.
- Short term: High volatility expected (trade with caution).
What is your opinion on this projection? Any specific aspects to explore?
