Bitcoin's current trend is very awkward. The US stock market is falling dramatically, yet Bitcoin is shooting up like a firecracker. Who wrote this script?
On the contrary, we need to be a bit more cautious.
Currently, the possibility of a direct one-sided surge is low, as the overall macroeconomic situation does not support this trend.
If the US stock market crashes and cryptocurrencies follow suit, it is within reason. But if the US stock market crashes and cryptocurrencies rise instead, it often implies that there is likely to be a storm ahead. First of all, since the Bitcoin spot ETF, cryptocurrencies can be understood as technology stocks on the Nasdaq, but with built-in leverage. Secondly, if cryptocurrencies do not follow the decline and instead rise independently, it often means that the market makers have intentions behind it, indicating that a bloody market is about to begin, and crazy harvesting will start again.
It may just be undercurrents stirring, and a bloody market is about to unfold.
So we need to pay attention to the daily MA200 point. If it can break through, there is a great chance to test 91,600. If it cannot break through and stabilize, it basically announces the end of this rebound. The obvious drop in the US stock market last night also caused a slight decline in BTC, but obviously, after the US market closed, BTC rebounded again during the day, showing strong momentum.
The conclusion is that BTC is not worried about the current orderly decline of the US stock market; what is concerning is the possibility of a sharp drop triggering a circuit breaker in the short term.
This kind of rapid rebound in the US stock market after closing again indicates that BTC's independent narrative and market still exist and have momentum.
Next, we will see if it can break through the MA200 position.
Of course, Bitcoin is in a very 'awkward' position right now, so it’s better to watch more and act less quickly; in the short term, it’s still better to lean towards the right side.
In addition,
Currently, global capital hedging sentiment is heating up sharply, gold is surging, and has reached 3,400 USD, more than a 100% increase since the end of 2022.
The current capital hedging more stems from concerns about US dollar funds. During the first three months of Trump's presidency, a series of 'crazy punches' shook the credit of the US. The US stock market fell, US bonds fell, and the dollar index also kept falling. The global economy is in a panic of long-term recession, capital is fleeing the US, and looking around, only gold is the 'most reliable.'
Recently, Bitcoin has been moving independently. From this perspective, is Bitcoin's hedging property comparable to gold?
I think it's still early. If you're seeking hedging, gold is still the best choice. I don't know how long this independent market for Bitcoin can last, nor do I know how much it can rise. But if systemic bad news appears, such as unfavorable GDP data at the end of the year, it is very likely that BTC will return to synchronizing with the US market.
the possibility of a reversal emerging now is not very high, and the conditions for a reversal are still not met. Although I hope BTC continues to rise, after all, I have a position.
The fact that Bitcoin dropped later than the US stock market indicates that the decline is caused by liquidity issues rather than by news. This time is the same; the US stock market fell due to concerns about tariffs, economic slowdown, and earnings pressure, which has nothing to do with BTC. On the contrary, it has an anti-devaluation property, hence the rise. However, if the US stock market continues to fall leading to a liquidity crisis, BTC and even gold will also drop.
Now, the direction after the change is really uncertain, but after this bizarre rally, I am more cautious. Let's see how it goes.
