Recently, the cryptocurrency market has experienced a strong rebound, with Bitcoin's price approaching the $95,000 mark and Ethereum breaking through $1,800. Some mainstream coins and altcoins have generally risen together.

This round of market movement is mainly driven by multiple short-term positive factors: on one hand, the violent rebound in the U.S. stock market on Tuesday has a certain correlation with Bitcoin, boosting the sentiment in the crypto market; on the other hand, Trump has released policy signals to lower tariffs on China and not interfere with the independence of the Federal Reserve, coupled with a significant net inflow of funds into U.S. virtual asset spot ETFs over several days, further strengthening the market's expectations for liquidity easing.

Moreover, while the potential benefits of Ethereum's upgrade in May and the approval of a staking ETF have not yet materialized, some investors have already bet on the potential increase in staking returns and ecosystem optimization brought about by its technological upgrade. However, it remains to be seen whether this is a bottom reversal or an apocalyptic situation that requires ongoing observation.

Although there has indeed been a significant increase in the market over the past two days, it is still too early to conclude that the trend has reversed. The sustainability of the current upward momentum remains a concern. On-chain data for Ethereum shows that the Ethereum Foundation and whale addresses are still continuously offloading assets, and there is skepticism about whether the upgrade's positive impact can translate into actual demand. While Bitcoin has broken through a key resistance level, the ability of ETF fund inflows to be sustained in the long term still needs to be observed in relation to U.S. stock market volatility and Federal Reserve policy direction. Especially since the expectation of interest rate cuts in June has not yet been fully realized, if the macro environment changes due to fluctuating inflation, the crypto market may face the risk of a correlated pullback.

In the short term, caution is required when chasing highs. If Bitcoin experiences significant pullbacks, it may be timely to conduct wave operations to lower holding costs, while also being wary of price fluctuations driven by sentiment in a “news-driven market.” The medium to long-term direction may need to wait for clarity on the Federal Reserve's policy path, as well as verification of on-chain data after Ethereum's upgrade.