No one thinks altcoins are expensive, but most people believe BTC is too expensive right now!
So is BTC really expensive now?
To put it simply: compared to history, BTC is expensive; but compared to the future, BTC is still cheap.
Compared to history, BTC is undeniably expensive.
This year's BTC price has reached a historical high; over the past decade, BTC's price has generally followed a four-year halving bull market.
From this perspective, if compared to history, buying BTC now seems to have little room for price increases; after all, the probability of reaching a new historical high in the short term is not high.
Entering the market now? That takes a lot of courage. So looking from the 'past', buying BTC now does not seem like the smartest choice.
But in investing, making money is never about looking at historical trends; true returns are hidden in future changes.
Looking to the future, BTC still offers high value for money.
To judge BTC's future price, we first need to look at the dollar. The price of currency is closely related to interest rates, and currently, the dollar interest rates are at a high in a long cycle.
Since Biden used the Swift system to freeze Russian assets for sanctions, the world has begun to question the 'safety' of the dollar. Coupled with trade wars, sanctions, and rising interest rates, the dollar has become more expensive and risky.
When the credit system is unstable, everyone starts looking for safe-haven assets. Thus, the 'hard currency' logic of BTC is being re-examined.
At this point, looking at BTC, it is no longer just a 'highly volatile speculative asset'; it is starting to resemble a 'reserve asset outside of sovereignty' — decentralized, not reliant on any country, cannot be easily frozen, and has a constant supply.
Looking back domestically, the depreciation of the RMB against the dollar indicates what?
This indicates that the cost of exchanging RMB for dollars is rising, but companies still need to go abroad, invest, and buy assets, which requires dollars. On one hand, demand for dollars does not decrease, while on the other hand, the exchange rate is weakening.
In simple terms, the 'purchasing power' of RMB globally is declining.
At this point, looking at BTC, if it is treated as a 'global asset pricing anchor' in the future, then the current price is merely the starting point.
In terms of market capitalization, BTC's current market value is only 1.6 trillion.
Compared to those tech stocks that easily reach valuations of tens of trillions, 1.6 trillion is indeed very low.
Compared to gold, BTC's market value is less than 10% of gold.
Investment returns are hidden in the future; one cannot ignore investment opportunities just because of past price trends.
Just like driving, we should focus ahead and occasionally glance at the rearview mirror for reference.
Analyzing history is to summarize experiences, but more importantly, it is about focusing on the future and grasping market change trends.
