#BTCvsMarkets
As of April 24, 2025, at 10:22 AM IST, the cryptocurrency market is witnessing a fascinating dynamic between Bitcoin (BTC) and traditional financial markets. Bitcoin, often hailed as "digital gold," has been increasingly viewed as a safe-haven asset, yet its behavior compared to equities, gold, and the U.S. dollar paints a complex picture. This article provides a real-time analysis of Bitcoin’s performance against broader markets, exploring its price movements, correlations, market sentiment, and macroeconomic factors driving its trajectory.
Bitcoin’s Current Standing: Price and Market Overview
Bitcoin is currently trading at $93,675.45, as reported on April 24, 2025, with a market cap of $1.85 trillion. Over the past 24 hours, BTC has seen a modest increase of 4.18%, with a trading volume of $78.06 billion. This follows a strong weekly performance, with Bitcoin gaining 4.47% over the last seven days and 5.44% over the past month. Notably, Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $109,464.94 on January 20, 2025, but has since corrected, reflecting the volatility inherent in the crypto market.
The broader crypto market cap stands at $2.74 trillion, down 0.30% in the last 24 hours, with Bitcoin’s dominance at 68.3%—a level not seen since early 2021. This dominance underscores Bitcoin’s outperformance relative to altcoins, which are struggling with liquidity constraints. Meanwhile, traditional markets are experiencing their own turbulence, with the S&P 500 down 5% month-to-date as of April 22, amid tariff concerns and U.S. Federal Reserve policy uncertainty. Gold, on the other hand, has surged past $2,917, reflecting its appeal as a traditional safe-haven asset.
Bitcoin’s Decoupling from Equities: A New Narrative
Historically, Bitcoin has shown a strong correlation with equities, particularly during macro sell-offs, with correlations often approaching 1.0. However, recent data suggests a significant shift. On April 22, Bitcoin reclaimed $90,000, rising 4.8% to $91,563.27, while U.S. equities faced steep declines due to President Trump’s pressure on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to lower rates. Posts on X highlight this decoupling, noting a negative correlation between BTC and stocks, with Bitcoin surging as the S&P 500 and the U.S. dollar weakened.
This decoupling is further evidenced by Bitcoin’s performance relative to the S&P 500 during recent market turmoil. On April 11, a post on X noted that Bitcoin, despite being 2.5 times more volatile than the S&P 500, experienced a 28% drawdown compared to the S&P 500’s 19%—a significant outperformance for a risk asset. Ed Engel, an analyst at Compass Point, reported a 30-day correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 at just 0.65, a stark contrast to historical norms. This suggests Bitcoin is increasingly behaving like a safe-haven asset, akin to gold, rather than a risk-on asset tied to equities.
Bitcoin vs. Gold: The Safe-Haven Showdown
The comparison between Bitcoin and gold as safe-haven assets has intensified in 2025. Gold has climbed steadily, gaining 8% in April alone, driven by inflation fears and economic uncertainty. Bitcoin, despite its recent correction from its January peak, has outperformed gold over the same period, with a 10% gain in April. However, Bitcoin’s volatility remains a hurdle. Since Trump’s inauguration in January, Bitcoin has lost 25% of its value, while gold has risen, leading some experts to argue that Bitcoin still behaves more like a high-risk asset than a defensive one.
Mena Theodorou, Co-founder of Coinstash, notes, “Bitcoin still reacts more like a high-risk asset than a defensive one.” This perspective is grounded in historical events like the 2020 COVID-19 crash, where gold soared to record highs while Bitcoin plunged 50% in a single day before rebounding. Yet, Bitcoin’s long-term outlook is promising. Its inherent scarcity—capped at 21 million coins—and growing institutional adoption position it as a modern complement to gold. Some experts argue that Bitcoin and gold may eventually coexist, with Bitcoin serving as a hedge against inflation and systemic risks in a digital era.
Institutional Adoption and ETF Inflows
A key driver of Bitcoin’s resilience is the surge in institutional adoption. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have been a game-changer, with inflows reaching $912.7 million (10,430 BTC) on April 22—the largest daily inflow since Trump’s inauguration. Since late March, these ETFs have seen net sales of 10,000 BTC in 2025, but the recent influx signals renewed institutional interest. BlackRock’s ETF, now the fastest-growing in history, has simplified access for investors, including pension funds and retirement accounts, reducing market volatility and cementing Bitcoin’s role as a core portfolio asset.
The Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) rule change, allowing companies to report Bitcoin holdings at fair market value, has further encouraged corporate adoption. MicroStrategy’s addition to the QQQ index in 2024 signaled market acceptance of Bitcoin-heavy firms, and this trend continues into 2025. An emerging ecosystem for Bitcoin-backed debt instruments also enables companies to secure liquidity without selling their holdings, integrating Bitcoin into standard business operations.
Macro Factors: Liquidity and Policy Shifts
Global liquidity conditions are playing a significant role in Bitcoin’s price trajectory. China’s bond market rally, with 10-year yields at multi-decade lows, signals a broader shift toward monetary easing. In the U.S., maturing Treasury bills and potential tariff policies under the Trump administration could create an inflationary environment, constraining the Federal Reserve’s ability to tighten monetary policy. Historically, such conditions have favored asset price increases, including Bitcoin, stocks, and real estate.
Luke Crosby of Bitcoin Magazine Pro highlights a consistent correlation—often exceeding 84%—between Bitcoin’s price and global M2 liquidity levels, with a 56–60 day lag. This correlation has held true in 2025, with Bitcoin rebounding from $75,000 to above $85,000 as liquidity expanded. Crosby projects Bitcoin could hit $108,000 by June 2025 if global liquidity continues to rise, a view supported by the Federal Reserve’s recent hints at further stimulus if market stability falters.
The Trump administration’s crypto-friendly policies are another tailwind. The replacement of SEC Chairman Gary Gensler with Paul Atkins, a known crypto advocate, has boosted market optimism. Trump’s promise to make the U.S. a “Bitcoin hub” and speculation about a strategic Bitcoin reserve have fueled bullish sentiment, though the lack of clarity on implementation remains a concern.
Technical Analysis and Price Predictions
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is showing bullish signals. On the four-hour chart, both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages are sloping upward, indicating a strong trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 67.80, suggesting a neutral-to-bullish market that is not yet overbought. On the weekly chart, a bullish engulfing pattern indicates strong momentum, with analysts expecting BTC to revisit its all-time high of $109,021 if the trend continues.
Price predictions for 2025 vary widely. CoinGape projects a maximum of $107,196.77, while Bitwise Asset Management and Standard Chartered predict $200,000, driven by ETF inflows and potential U.S. Bitcoin reserves. More conservative estimates from Changelly suggest a range of $100,027.46 to $115,243.79. Bearish scenarios, however, cannot be ignored. Bloomberg Intelligence’s Mike McGlone warns of a potential crash to $10,000 if the S&P 500 drops to 4,000, citing historical correlations.
Risks and Challenges
Despite the bullish outlook, risks loom large. The Federal Reserve’s scaled-back expectations for 2025 rate cuts could keep Treasury yields elevated, making them more attractive than riskier assets like Bitcoin. Regulatory uncertainty, particularly around Trump’s tariff policies and their impact on inflation, could also trigger market corrections. Additionally, Bitcoin’s high volatility—evident in its 30% correction from its January peak—remains a concern for risk-averse investors.
Conclusion: Bitcoin’s Evolving Role
On April 24, 2025, Bitcoin is carving out a unique position in the financial landscape, decoupling from equities and increasingly rivaling gold as a safe-haven asset. Institutional adoption, favorable liquidity conditions, and pro-crypto policies under the Trump administration are driving its resilience, though volatility and macroeconomic risks persist. As Bitcoin navigates this complex environment, its role as a hedge against traditional market risks is becoming clearer, but investors must remain vigilant in this highly dynamic market.
Disclaimer: Cryptocurrency investments are highly volatile. Always do your own research and never invest more than you can afford to lose.
