Regarding whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year and its impact on Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market, it can be analyzed in two scenarios.

The first scenario is that if Trump's tariff policy continues to drive up prices, causing inflation to remain high or even rebound, then in 2025 the Federal Reserve may only cut rates 0 to 2 times, and in 2026 it may cut rates 2 times.

In this context of high inflation, the increase in Bitcoin and altcoins may be limited. Although Bitcoin could have a 30% chance of reaching $200,000 in 2026 due to factors like the U.S. strategic reserves, the performance of altcoins may not be very good and significant follow-up gains may not occur.

The second scenario is that if inflation does not rebound but instead declines slowly, then in 2025 the Federal Reserve may cut rates 3 to 4 times, and in 2026 it may cut rates 5 to 6 times.

In this low-inflation environment, the likelihood of Bitcoin reaching $200,000 in 2026 would greatly increase, and altcoins would also be expected to see significant gains.

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