Consolidation for over 6 hours will lead to significant trend changes. ETH is all about the heartbeat right now!
1. From the news perspective, the U.S. Treasury suddenly proposed a crypto tax, causing ETH to plummet from 1825 to 1765 in an instant, scaring the market. However, at 3 AM, a whale bought 28,000 ETH with costs between 1730-1760, obviously taking in retail investors' bleeding chips. Even more aggressively, on-chain data shows 11,500 buy orders lurking at 1720, clearly indicating a push against the short sellers! Vitalik also tweeted this morning, stating that L2 locked positions surged by 35% in a week, with whales on Optimism and Base chains making frantic transfers. Negative policies combined with technical rebounds are creating a psychological warfare by the big players!
2. From a technical perspective, signals of a rebound from an oversold condition have appeared, but the trading volume is insufficient. The DIF line (-0.5) and DEA line (1.2) are entangled at a low level, with the MACD bar shrinking to -1.8. Historically, when close to -2, there is a 72% probability of a rebound of 5% or more, but the key is whether the DIF line can stabilize for 3 hours. The actual trading volume reached only 42,000, which is half of the 78,000 expected by the big players, indicating retail investors are laying flat, and the big players are staging their own drama. This morning's spike from 1765 back to 1800 was clearly a stop-loss hunt against the long positions, followed by low-price accumulation, a typical “false breakdown, real rebound” trick.
3. If it stabilizes above 1838, a rebound may commence, targeting 1900-1950. If it breaks below 1760, it may continue to probe down to 1720 (the whale's support level).
Short-term strategy:
If it stabilizes around 1760, a small position can be taken to bet on a rebound. A breakout above 1838 confirms a short-term trend reversal to bullish. If it breaks below 1720, stop-loss and observe, do not hold on stubbornly.
Currently, ETH is scared down by policies, but whales are crazily bottom-fishing, and the technical indicators are oversold. The 1760-1720 range is a strong support zone. The big players are playing a psychological game; the more panic among retail investors, the happier they are. Don’t be fooled by short-term fluctuations, keep an eye on the key levels, and wait for the signal!