Arthur Hayes, founder of BitMex, believes that Bitcoin can double in value, reaching the range of $200,000 per unit. This appreciation would be caused by the Fed's Treasury bond repurchase program, the American central bank.
At the beginning of the year, when Bitcoin was priced above $100,000, the billionaire asserted that the cryptocurrency would fall to $70,000. The coin hit a low of $74,500 in April, very close to his target.
That is, although he is a big fan of Bitcoin, Hayes is more concerned about making money than defending a fixed narrative, unafraid to publish his analyses.
Arthur Hayes provides a new analysis on Bitcoin
Famous for his long and technical texts, Arthur Hayes published another essay on his blog this Tuesday (22) where he argues that the Fed's Treasury bond repurchase policy will have the same impacts as Quantitative Easing (QE).
“This allows the government to finance itself at affordable rates,” explains Hayes. “The more debt is issued and bought not with private savings, but with leveraged funds created via the banking system, the greater the growth of the money supply.”
“And then we know what the only asset we want to own is when the amount of fiat currency increases: Bitcoin.”
Following this, Hayes points to a decline in the MOVE index (Merrill Option Volatility Estimate), which measures the volatility of U.S. Treasury securities.
While other analysts point out that the Bitcoin bull market is over, potentially causing the cryptocurrency to fall to $60,000, the billionaire believes that the cryptocurrency will take another direction.
“Bessent will buy old bonds by issuing new ones,” explains Hayes, citing a case that happened in the third quarter of 2022. “None of this was what most investors knew and recognized as QE.”
“Therefore, they let it pass and had to chase after the bullish rally as soon as it was confirmed as a breakout.”
Bitcoin will reach $200,000, says BitMex founder
With experience at Deutsche Bank and Citigroup before entering the cryptocurrency market and founding the first Bitcoin futures exchange, Arthur Hayes is one of the most respected names in the industry.
Continuing his analysis, the billionaire points out that Bitcoin could reach $200,000 with this new Fed policy.
“When Bitcoin surpasses $110,000, its previous record, it will likely surge, increasing its dominance even further. It may get close to $200,000.”
After this moment, Hayes believes that smaller cryptocurrencies will perform better as investors use their profits to seek other opportunities.
In his view, the projects that will benefit the most from this rise are those that generate a kind of dividends, that is, cryptocurrencies with staking.
“The shitcoin collectors want higher staking returns whose rewards come from real profits, because these cash flows are sustainable,” explained Hayes, promising to write a unique piece on the subject.
Finally, this and other analyses demonstrate that the market is undergoing a change in sentiment, believing in a big rally by the end of the year.