鸡父
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Daily Crypto Market Analysis (04.23)
Summary:
1. The bear market in U.S. stocks is far from over, but a continuous crash is unrealistic. The current low has dropped to around Fibonacci 0.5, where there is a probability of a weekly level rebound.
2. The success or failure of the Mar-a-Lago agreement and the simulation of the triple kill in stocks, bonds, and currency.
3. The likelihood of gold peaking in Q2 is increasing.
4. A significant shift in the larger bull and bear outlook is necessary.
5. Pay close attention to the 94900 line; if it holds, the daily level will end upward, followed by a downward move at the daily level.
6. Targets for the daily level down (84500/82000/78000)
7. A weekly upward move, with two possibilities of 5 moves/7 moves; if fast, in August, if slow, in October, positions at 109000/119000/129000
Operations:
1. Holding a short position at $BTC , taking profit at 84500, and purchasing spot Bitcoin, allocating 1% leverage for 100x Bitcoin-based long positions, adding another 1% at 82000 and another 1% at 78000. Half of the long position to be sold at 106000, with the remaining position held until 118000, cutting losses if the weekly candlestick breaks MA60.
2. Synchronize Bitcoin with $SOL /$ETH ; the short position for SOL is 157/162, and for ETH around 1848. Close shorts and buy spot when Bitcoin hits the 84500 line. Do not choose ETH for spot and Bitcoin-based long positions; choose SOL instead. The reason is that too many people bought Ethereum at over 3000+ at the end of last year, waiting for a rebound, and even after several rounds of averaging down, their average cost remains above 2500, leading to significant selling pressure here. The probability of Ethereum rising to 2800 is very low, while it is likely to encounter resistance around 2400.
SOL, on the other hand, can be viewed as forming a large head and shoulders pattern, with expected heights between 265-295, at least not dropping below 210. For Bitcoin-based long positions, close half at 214 and start trailing up, exiting completely at 273.
3. Altcoin targets: JTO, ONDO, SUI, SEI, STX, MKR, AAVE, TAO, RENDER, XLM, LINK
Buy when Bitcoin retraces to 84500. This year, it is highly likely that altcoins will have another wave; the current altcoin season index is 14, which is very suitable, just wait for Bitcoin to retrace before buying. When the altcoin season index rises above 80, exit in batches.
Summary:
1. The bear market in U.S. stocks is far from over, but a continuous crash is unrealistic. The current low has dropped to around Fibonacci 0.5, where there is a probability of a weekly level rebound.
2. The success or failure of the Mar-a-Lago agreement and the simulation of the triple kill in stocks, bonds, and currency.
3. The likelihood of gold peaking in Q2 is increasing.
4. A significant shift in the larger bull and bear outlook is necessary.
5. Pay close attention to the 94900 line; if it holds, the daily level will end upward, followed by a downward move at the daily level.
6. Targets for the daily level down (84500/82000/78000)
7. A weekly upward move, with two possibilities of 5 moves/7 moves; if fast, in August, if slow, in October, positions at 109000/119000/129000
Operations:
1. Holding a short position at $BTC , taking profit at 84500, and purchasing spot Bitcoin, allocating 1% leverage for 100x Bitcoin-based long positions, adding another 1% at 82000 and another 1% at 78000. Half of the long position to be sold at 106000, with the remaining position held until 118000, cutting losses if the weekly candlestick breaks MA60.
2. Synchronize Bitcoin with $SOL /$ETH ; the short position for SOL is 157/162, and for ETH around 1848. Close shorts and buy spot when Bitcoin hits the 84500 line. Do not choose ETH for spot and Bitcoin-based long positions; choose SOL instead. The reason is that too many people bought Ethereum at over 3000+ at the end of last year, waiting for a rebound, and even after several rounds of averaging down, their average cost remains above 2500, leading to significant selling pressure here. The probability of Ethereum rising to 2800 is very low, while it is likely to encounter resistance around 2400.
SOL, on the other hand, can be viewed as forming a large head and shoulders pattern, with expected heights between 265-295, at least not dropping below 210. For Bitcoin-based long positions, close half at 214 and start trailing up, exiting completely at 273.
3. Altcoin targets: JTO, ONDO, SUI, SEI, STX, MKR, AAVE, TAO, RENDER, XLM, LINK
Buy when Bitcoin retraces to 84500. This year, it is highly likely that altcoins will have another wave; the current altcoin season index is 14, which is very suitable, just wait for Bitcoin to retrace before buying. When the altcoin season index rises above 80, exit in batches.
Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No financial advice. May include sponsored content. See T&Cs.
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