Market Surge and Trump's Team's Three Easing Events
(April 22-23)
✅ First Wave of Easing (23:59 ET)
🔺 Event: Former White House advisor Bessent stated at a closed-door meeting with JPMorgan that 'the China-U.S. trade war is unsustainable and will soon cool down,' suggesting a possible breakthrough in agreement negotiations.
🔺 Market Reaction: Chinese concept stocks surged (+6%), gold fell by 0.8%, and the NASDAQ jumped by 1.5%.
🔺 Significance: Choosing to release news through internal channels on Wall Street aims to guide large capital allocations in advance and alleviate market panic.
✅ Second Wave of Preparation (01:00 ET)
🔺 Event: White House Press Secretary Levitt stated that 'U.S.-China relations are moving in the right direction,' while defending Trump's criticism of the Federal Reserve, asserting his right to express dissatisfaction with Powell.
🔺 Market Reaction: U.S. stocks' gains expanded, the U.S. dollar index rebounded by 0.3%, and risk appetite increased.
🔺 Purpose: To downplay the long-term nature of the trade war (Politico stated negotiations would take months) while shifting attention from the controversy over the Federal Reserve's independence.
✅ Third Wave of Confirmation (05:00 ET)
🔺 Event: Trump stated, 'Tariffs on China will be significantly reduced (not eliminated), and China will be satisfied,' and mentioned, 'I will not fire Powell, but hope he will actively lower interest rates.'
🔺 Market Reaction: S&P futures rose over 2%, offshore RMB appreciated by 0.8%, and the U.S. treasury yield curve steepened.
🔺 Core Intent: By using both 'lower tariff expectations' and 'pressure relief on Powell,' strengthen the market's optimistic narrative of 'soft landing.'
⭕ Future Market Logic and Strategy
🔺 Short-term Direction: The market's speculation on 'agreement expectations' will continue for 1-2 weeks, primarily trending upwards due to:
- Trump needs to release positive economic news before the May election;
- Tariff 'desensitization' (even if repeated, the impact weakens).
🔺 Risk Points: If there is no substantial progress in the next 10 days (e.g., ambiguous responses from the Chinese side), the upward trend may reverse; the probability of a Fed rate cut in June remains a volatility amplifier.
👊🏻 Simplified Logic: Three consecutive 'verbal assaults' support the market → Short-term emotional recovery → But beware of the backlash from 'expectation gaps.'