BTC is no longer just a speculative asset driven by retail investors; it is increasingly being seen as a mature financial instrument. The participation of institutional investors continues to rise, coupled with macroeconomic pressures and changes in market structure, leading to more cautious and complex market reactions.

BTC Cycle Comparison. Source: Bitcoin Cycles Comparison
Another evident sign of this evolution is that the strength of each cycle is diminishing. As BTC's market capitalization grows, the explosive price increases of the early years are becoming increasingly difficult to replicate. For example, during the cycle from 2020 to 2024, BTC rose by 436% one year after the halving.
In contrast, the increase during this cycle for the same time period is only 31%, much more moderate.
This shift may signify that BTC is entering a new chapter characterized by reduced volatility and more stable long-term growth. Halving may no longer be the main driving force, with other factors such as interest rates, liquidity, and institutional funds playing a larger role.
The rules of the game are changing, and BTC's trend is changing as well.
Nevertheless, it is worth noting that previous cycles also experienced consolidation and pullback phases before resuming an upward trend. While this phase may feel slower or lack excitement, it may still represent a healthy adjustment before the next round of increases.
That said, this cycle still has the potential to continue deviating from historical patterns. It may not experience dramatic top bubble bursts, but rather present a more enduring and structurally sound upward trend, driven more by fundamentals than speculation.