1. Technical analysis
Current price and trends
• Current price: According to sources, it is trading around $3,617.48 (Binance) to $3,323.11 (CoinGecko) based on the latest updates in late 2024 and early 2025.
• Overall trend:$ETH in a medium-term upward direction, supported by regulatory developments and significant institutional investments. However, there are signs of short-term volatility due to market corrections.
• Support and resistance levels:
• Support: $2,927.06, $2,740.37, $2,374.62. If the price falls below $2,740.37, it may head towards $2,374.62 or lower ($1,985.88).
• Resistance: $3,441.88, $3,879.58, $4,149.40, with the potential to reach $4,790.96 if the bullish momentum continues.
• Chart patterns:
• A large bullish flag pattern is forming, indicating the continuation of the upward trend.
• Emergence of Japanese candlestick patterns like Hammer and Morning Star, enhancing the likelihood of continued buying.
• The Golden Cross pattern reflects the strength of buyers on the daily frame.
• Technical indicators:
• RSI Indicator: Approaching 61, after being in the overbought area, indicating a potential short-term correction but still positive.
• MACD Indicator: Values are retracting towards zero but remain in the positive zone, supporting the upward trend.
• MFI Indicator: Shows some liquidity outflow, which may reflect profit-taking after recent gains.
• CCI Indicator: Indicates a previously oversold area with bullish divergence, supporting bullish expectations.
Short and medium-term forecasts
• Short-term (weeks): Ethereum may face slight correction due to profit-taking and a rise in the fear and greed index (83 - extreme greed). However, the upward trend remains strong with the potential to test the $3,879.58 level.
• Medium-term (months): forecasts indicate a price range between $1,900 and $4,343 in 2024-2025, with the possibility of reaching $4,000 by mid-2025 if the momentum continues.
2. Fundamental analysis
Positive factors
1. Approval of ETFs:
• The U.S. SEC approved eight Ethereum ETFs, including from companies like BlackRock ($286 million) and Fidelity ($197 million). This enhances liquidity and attracts institutional investors.
2. Technological developments:
• Ethereum's network is only 55% complete according to Vitalik Buterin, with future updates like The Surge (to improve scalability) enhancing network efficiency and transaction processing capacity.
• Transitioning to Proof of Stake (PoS) after The Merge makes Ethereum more sustainable and attractive to investors.
3. Increased interest:
• Increased searches for Ethereum on Google and YouTube (interest level 58-100), reflecting rising demand.
4. Political impact:
• Donald Trump's victory in the 2024 U.S. elections boosted cryptocurrency prices, including Ethereum, due to expectations of crypto-friendly policies.
Negative factors
1. Regulatory challenges:
• Uncertainty regarding ETH token classification as securities by the SEC may negatively impact prices.
• The decreased likelihood of ETF approvals earlier (from 70% to 25%) caused volatility.
2. Market volatility:
• The cryptocurrency market is suffering from a state of 'fear and uncertainty,' with volatility driven by geopolitical and economic tensions.
3. Market competition:
• Coins like Solana outperform in some aspects (transaction speed), which may limit Ethereum's dominance.
3. Price forecasts
• 2024-2025: expected range between $1,900 and $4,343, with an average forecast of $3,688 by the end of 2024.
• 2026-2030:
• Optimistic forecasts suggest Ethereum could reach $4,790.96 or higher if technological developments are realized and institutional adoption continues.
• Some analysts see the possibility of reaching new all-time highs (ATH) by 2030, supported by the expansion of DeFi and NFTs.
• Long-term (2040): forecasts indicate significant growth with widespread adoption of blockchain technologies, but this depends on market stability and regulations.
4. Recommendations for investors
1. Short-term traders:
• Monitor support levels ($2,740.37) and resistance ($3,879.58). Prepare for short-term corrections due to profit-taking.
• Use technical indicators like RSI and MACD to determine entry and exit points.
2. Long-term investors:
• Ethereum remains an attractive investment thanks to technological developments and institutional adoption. Holding the asset (HODL) could be a profitable strategy with growth expectations until 2030.
• Diversifying the portfolio to reduce risks associated with volatility.
3. Risk management:
• Place stop-loss orders at key support levels.
• Avoid investing based on extreme greed (Fear & Greed Index = 83).
5. Summary
Ethereum is in a strong position with an upward trend supported by technological developments (such as The Surge) and institutional investments (ETFs). However, caution should be taken regarding short-term volatility resulting from regulations and market dynamics. Forecasts suggest potential growth to $4,000 or higher in 2025, with the possibility of achieving new all-time highs by 2030 if positive factors continue.
Note: Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile, so it's advisable to conduct further research and consult financial professionals before making investment decisions.
