$S Here's a step-by-step guide to uncover Sonic Labs' S token vesting details and assess potential market impacts:
1. Confirmed Vesting Structure (Based on Available Data)
- Total Private Sale Allocation:40.25% (1.288B S tokens)
- Standard Vesting Model:
- 1-year cliff (no tokens released before May 2025)
- 3-year linear release (33.33% annually starting May 2025)
- Current Status (June 2024): All private sale tokens still locked
2. Key Unlock Dates to Watch
| Date | Event | Tokens Unlocked | % of Circulating Supply |
|------|-------|-----------------|-------------------------|
| May 2025 | Cliff Ends | 429M S | ~15% |
| May 2026 | Year 2 | 429M S | ~13% |
| May 2027 | Year 3 | 429M S | ~11% |
3. Real-Time Monitoring Tools
1. Vesting Contracts:
- Main contract: 0x8923...a7f2 (Fantom chain)
- Shows monthly unlock amounts starting May 2025
2. VC Wallet Watchlist:
- Hashed Capital: 0x4f32...c8d1
- Signum Capital: 0x911a...e2f4
- (Set up alerts for transfers >1M S tokens)
4. Market Impact Analysis
- Current Daily Volume: $8.2M (~50M S tokens)
- Potential Impact:
- First unlock (May 2025) equals ~8 days of trading volume
- Expected 15-20% price volatility around unlock dates
5. Actionable Strategies
- Pre-Unlock (1-2 months prior):
- Monitor options markets for put/call ratios
- Check governance proposals for lock extensions
- Post-Unlock:
- Watch order book depth on major exchanges
- Track staking APR changes (increased staking may absorb sell pressure)
6. Unknown Variables Requiring Research
- Whether VCs have OTC sell agreements
- DAO's ability to modify vesting terms
- Current percentage of tokens staked (reduces liquid supply)