The current market is more like an emotional recovery rebound after an oversold situation, rather than a trend reversal. The reasons are as follows:
- Dominant factors: Currently, the market's ups and downs are dominated by signals from Trump's policies, and the economic fundamentals lack substantial positive support.
- Volume performance: This rise is a rebound on reduced volume; although trading volume has moderately increased, capital inflow is not significant, lacking the momentum needed for a trend reversal.
A true trend reversal is usually accompanied by a sustained increase in trading volume, a large influx of capital, and significant positive factors such as the Federal Reserve easing policies or economic data exceeding expectations.
The GDP data to be released at the end of the month is key; if the data is strong, the market may rise further; conversely, the upward momentum will quickly diminish.
Before the fundamentals are clear, a rebound on reduced volume should be seen as a temporary recovery. It is advisable to reduce positions in batches based on the principle of "buy in panic, sell in rallies."
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