Bitcoin is currently trading inside a significant resistance zone between $88,000 and $89,000. This area has acted as a strong supply zone in the past, evidenced by multiple rejections that led to notable sell-offs.
The recent upward momentum that brought price back into this area was backed by a strong rally off the April lows, pushing through local structure and recovering critical levels. However, despite the strength of this move, price is now approaching a decision point where bulls need to prove continuation capacity or risk triggering another corrective leg.
Consolidation Structure:
The current structure reflects a potential accumulation base forming below resistance, marked by a series of higher lows and a compression of volatility. This typically precedes a breakout, though it also heightens the risk of a sharp rejection should buyers fail to sustain pressure. The local trend remains bullish on the 4H timeframe, but the lack of follow-through above resistance so far suggests hesitation. Price is essentially coiling beneath a ceiling, building pressure for a breakout or breakdown move in the coming sessions.
Bullish Scenario:
If Bitcoin is able to cleanly break above the $89,000 resistance level, the key confirmation will be a successful retest of this zone from above. This area, once flipped into support, would offer a strong launchpad for continuation toward the next key target at $95,000. This target aligns with the measured move projection from the recent range and also represents a psychological milestone that may attract momentum buyers. A confirmed breakout and retest would signal strength from bulls and invalidate the prior resistance structure, transitioning it into new support.
Bearish Scenario:
Alternatively, if price fails to break above the resistance zone and prints another rejection, I expect a retracement to follow. The first major area of interest on the downside is the imbalance zone between approximately $84,000 and $85,500. This level also aligns with the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement, and given the inefficiency left behind from the recent rally, it serves as a logical short-term support area. A bounce here would not be surprising, particularly on the first touch. However, should price break below and close beneath this zone, it would indicate weakness and open the door for a deeper corrective move.
The next major downside target in that case would be the golden pocket between $79,500 and $80,500. This zone carries strong confluence: it’s formed by the 0.618–0.65 Fibonacci retracement, a previously unfilled price void (PVG), and the base of the recent rally. Price reaching this area would likely attract interest from both buyers looking for re-entry and shorts looking to cover. A reaction from this level could set the stage for a medium-term bounce or even a new accumulation phase.
Current Stance:
At the moment, my stance is neutral-to-bullish while price remains within the resistance zone. I'm closely monitoring for a clean breakout and retest, which would trigger a long setup targeting the $95K area. Until that breakout occurs, caution is warranted due to the risk of rejection and retracement. If price breaks down from the current level, I will shift my focus to lower support zones, particularly the imbalance region and the golden pocket, for potential long opportunities or further confirmation of bearish momentum.
Conclusion:
Bitcoin is at a pivotal point technically. The structure and momentum suggest the possibility of a bullish continuation, but confirmation through breakout and retest is essential. A failure to break and hold above resistance will likely initiate a retracement, with the imbalance zone serving as the first major test. If that zone fails, a trip toward the golden pocket at $80K becomes increasingly probable. This is a reactive zone-to-zone environment, and both breakout and breakdown scenarios offer actionable setups based on confirmation.
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