Bitcoin is often hailed as 'digital gold' due to its decentralization and scarcity. Despite its extreme price volatility and speculative nature, supporters firmly believe it has the potential to rival gold's market cap. So, if that day really comes, how much can each Bitcoin rise to? This article will calculate based on current data and explore the possibility and underlying logic of achieving this assumption.

I. Gold's Market Cap and Bitcoin's Supply


To estimate Bitcoin's price after reaching gold's market cap, two core data points must be clarified:

  • Gold's Market Cap: As of April 2025, the total global market cap of gold is approximately $22.59 trillion.

  • Circulating Supply of Bitcoin: The current circulating quantity of Bitcoin is about 19.7 million coins, close to the total supply cap of 21 million.


Calculation Method:

If Bitcoin's total market cap equals that of gold, the price of each Bitcoin would be:

Price of each Bitcoin = Total market cap of gold ÷ Circulating supply of Bitcoin

Substituting Data for Calculation:
$22.59 trillion ÷ 19.7 million ≈ $1,146,700 per coin

Based on the current exchange rate (1 USD ≈ 7.3 RMB):
$1,146,700 × 7.3 ≈ 8,370,900 RMB per coin

In other words, if Bitcoin's market cap equals that of gold, the theoretical price per Bitcoin would be approximately $1,146,700 (about 8.37 million RMB).

II. Why is Bitcoin referred to as 'digital gold'?


Gold has become a safe-haven asset and a global 'monetary anchor' due to its scarcity, physical stability, and cultural recognition over thousands of years. Bitcoin exhibits similar properties in the following aspects:

  • Scarcity: The total supply is fixed at 21 million coins, with supply entirely controlled by algorithms.

  • Decentralization: No central authority controls it, with censorship resistance and a 'borderless' characteristic.

  • Store of Value Function: In high-inflation countries, Bitcoin has been used as a tool to hedge against local currency devaluation.


III. Feasibility of Bitcoin Reaching Gold's Market Cap


The road to achieving a market cap of $22.59 trillion is filled with challenges, but developments in the following areas could push it closer to this goal:

1. Surge in Market Demand

  • Institutional Adoption: The involvement of sovereign funds, central banks, or large enterprises can significantly boost demand.

  • Retail Popularization: As ETFs and digital wallets become more widespread, the entry barrier for ordinary investors is lowered.

  • Macro Crisis: Currency devaluation or a global financial crisis may create a hedge demand for decentralized assets.


2. Improvement of the Regulatory Environment

Currently, Bitcoin's legal status is unclear in many countries, and regulatory uncertainty suppresses institutional participation. If major economies provide clear legal status, it will greatly enhance market confidence.

3. Support from Technological Advancements

  • Increased Transaction Efficiency: For example, the Lightning Network can effectively enhance transaction speed and cost efficiency.

  • Development of Financial Instruments: Bitcoin ETFs and futures products reduce the difficulty of allocation.


4. Cultural and Cognitive Shift

Bitcoin needs to gradually transform from a 'high-risk speculative product' into a widely accepted 'store of value.' This requires time accumulation and real success stories for support.


IV. If Bitcoin Truly Reaches Gold's Market Cap


If Bitcoin's market cap really reaches $22.59 trillion, the market may undergo the following changes:

  • Reduced Volatility: Deeper market depth can reduce speculative fluctuations.

  • Value Anchor Emergence: It may become one of the global assets against inflation.

  • Expansion of International Use Cases: Its 'borderless' characteristic may enable it to have international settlement capabilities.

However, it should be noted: Gold is backed by a millennium of cultural and trust accumulation, while Bitcoin is still a young asset, and widespread cultural recognition will take time to establish.

V. Other Possible Market Cap Scenarios


If Bitcoin fails to fully catch up to gold's market cap, its potential price still has room for imagination:

  • Half of gold's market cap ($11.3 trillion): about $573,600 per coin (approximately 4.1873 million RMB)

  • One-third of gold's market cap ($7.53 trillion): about $382,200 per coin (approximately 2.79 million RMB)

These intermediate scenarios may be more practically valuable and align with the gradual development path of the market.

VI. Conclusion


If Bitcoin ultimately achieves parity with gold's market cap, the theoretical price per coin could reach $1,146,700 (approximately 8.37 million RMB). Achieving this height requires large-scale institutional adoption, friendly regulatory policies, continuous optimization of underlying technology, and a shift in social cultural recognition. Currently, Bitcoin remains a high-risk asset, and its price volatility reflects an immature market. But just like the internet in its early stages 20 years ago, today’s Bitcoin may be standing at the threshold of transformation.

May we witness the growth of this 'digital gold' together and look forward to it finding its place in the future global financial system.

Note: This article is based on data from April 2025 and is for reference only; actual prices are influenced by multiple factors. Investing in crypto assets is highly risky; please make cautious decisions.