$BTC The current market for Bitcoin has actually initially satisfied the fundamentals for a market reversal.

Friends who have been following me for a while know that since I publicly called for a short on February 5, I have been an unyielding bear.

So why do I say that BTC has already formed the basic fundamentals for an initial market reversal? Focus on the following points:

Bitcoin has gradually detached from the movements of U.S. stocks since the day before yesterday, starting to move independently. The Federal Reserve has not cut interest rates, and in a market without liquidity, Bitcoin can move independently only if the main force forcibly controls the market to push it up or if there is new liquidity injected.

It is obvious that this does not align with the idea of the main force forcibly controlling the market. Anyone who has tried knows this.

First, when the main force goes for a strong long or short position, it will inevitably be accompanied by news for a quick rise or drop to complete the harvest. Currently, the market is seeing declines in U.S. stocks, the U.S. dollar index, and U.S. bonds. The tariffs are also unclear. If the main force forcibly raises the market to short heavily, the capital cost required is extremely high, and they could easily get trapped themselves.

Second, on-chain data shows that recent BTC inflows are mainly concentrated in ETF inflows. ETFs are one of the ways for retail investors to enter the market; in other words, this batch of funds does not belong to the hot money of the crypto circle, but rather to cold money from outside the circle. On-chain data also shows that multiple whales have been in a selling state over the past three days. Other institutions, except MicroStrategy, have not made large purchases, which does not align with the behavior of large institutions concentrating on pushing the market up.

Third, anyone with clear eyes knows that Trump's current move is likely aimed at using tariff policies to crash U.S. stocks, weaken the dollar, and force the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.