Isn't it possible to accurately determine the market's chances of moving in one direction or another? It is, but it depends on several psychological factors. And one of them is the freedom from the illusion that any trade must fulfill all your dreams. In any case, a person with such a delusion finds it very difficult to learn to objectively assess market actions. Moreover, if one constantly adjusts facts to fit their dreams, discarding the unsuitable ones, then learning objective assessment may no longer be necessary: after all, there may not be any money left for trading.