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Bitcoin (BTC) is at the crossroads of several dynamics, between macroeconomics, regulation, technological innovation, and adoption. Here is an overview of possible developments for Bitcoin in the coming years, categorized by theme:
1. Price evolution
📈Bullish scenario 📈:
- Increasing institutional adoption (funds, banks, countries).
- Reduction in supply with the upcoming halving.
- Increase in demand via Spot ETFs like those approved in the USA in 2024.
- Targets set by some analysts: $100,000 or more in the medium term.
2. Regulation
🏛️Strengthening of regulations🏛️:
- Increased controls on platforms (KYC, AML). Tax surveillance of crypto holders.
- Governments' desire to maintain control over their monetary policy.
- But also growing legal recognition:
- Several countries (like El Salvador) have already adopted Bitcoin as legal tender.
- Potential integration into sovereign funds, banking products, pensions.
🧠 3. Usage & adoption
Store of value: Always seen as “digital gold”, especially in countries facing monetary crises (Argentina, Lebanon…).
• Payment: Not widely used in daily transactions today, but the Lightning network is progressing.
Financial freedom tool: Used in areas where banks censor or restrict access to capital.
🛠️ 4. Technological innovation
Lightning Network: Instantaneous and very low-cost transactions — could expand use cases.
Integration of smart contracts via Layer 2 solutions.
Ordinals & NFTs on Bitcoin: controversial, but show that BTC is also evolving towards non-monetary uses.
☠️ 5. Major risks
Loss of trust due to a bug, attack, or poor governance (even if unlikely).
Competition from central bank digital currencies (CBDCs).
Energy transition: pressure for mining to become more eco-friendly.
