#IMF IMF Flags Rising U.S. Recession Odds for 2025
World Economic Outlook pegs U.S. downturn chance at 40% as inflation pressures persist
The International Monetary Fund’s latest World Economic Outlook now assigns the United States roughly a 40% probability of entering a recession in 2025, up from about a one‑in‑four chance in last October’s forecast .
Global price pressures remain elevated, with headline inflation expected to average around 4.3% in 2025 before easing to approximately 3.6% in 2026 . In particular, developed economies have seen “notable” upward revisions to their inflation outlooks, underscoring the challenge of bringing prices back toward central bank targets .
Trade tensions—especially sweeping U.S. tariff measures—and broader policy uncertainty are weighing heavily on growth prospects across all regions, prompting the IMF to caution that these factors could significantly dampen activity if left unaddressed .
Meanwhile, emerging market and developing economies have enjoyed a modest reprieve, with their inflation forecasts trimmed slightly to settle around the mid‑five‑percent range for 2025 .
The Fund stresses that navigating this environment of sticky inflation, evolving trade disputes, and financial market volatility will require coordinated monetary, fiscal, and trade policies to support a more stable and sustainable growth path .
Hashtags:
#EconomicOutlook #RecessionRisk #GlobalInflation #TradeTensions