Today, several friends have been asking Lao Liu whether this round of market movement marks the beginning of a reversal or merely a technical rebound. From my perspective, it is more likely that we are still in the 'rebound' phase rather than a trending 'reversal'.

Currently, the downward pressure on the economy still exists, and economic slowdown has become a consensus. Even if we have not entered a technical recession, we must quickly stabilize above the 91700 position in the short term for there to be hope of a reversal.

Additionally, the Federal Reserve has not yet eased its stance, and monetary policy remains tight, with interest rates still at high levels. Lastly, the policy path is difficult; if interest rates are cut early, it will reinforce market expectations of an 'economic recession'; if rates are not cut, it means that the liquidity environment remains tight.

Therefore, the market is temporarily unlikely to usher in a comprehensive trend reversal; in the short term, it still belongs to a phase of structural repair while waiting for data to materialize. The true directional signal may only become clearer after the domestic Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data and economic guidance at the end of this month.