Last night, the sharp decline in global financial markets and the counter-trend rise of $BTC creates a divergence phenomenon~
On the surface, it seems contradictory, but it is actually the result of the interplay of various factors, hiding a profound adjustment in the market's perception of the macro environment, monetary policy, demand for safe-haven assets, and asset allocation logic.
The United States' policy of increasing tariffs on multiple countries has triggered tensions in the global supply chain, with rising corporate costs and shrinking demand expectations directly impacting the earnings outlook for US stocks. This is particularly evident in the technology and manufacturing sectors, which are highly dependent on global supply chains and are significantly affected by tariff policies.
The recent "hawkish" signals released by the Federal Reserve have created a divergence with the market's expectations for interest rate cuts. Investors are concerned that a high-interest rate environment will suppress corporate investment and consumption, while fluctuating inflation data has led to a decline in market trust in the Federal Reserve's policy path.
The weak earnings reports from tech stocks like Tesla and NVIDIA have further exacerbated the sell-off pressure on overvalued sectors. As an important pillar of US stocks, the decline in tech stocks has directly dragged down the overall index performance.
Against the backdrop of geopolitical risks and turbulence in traditional financial markets, Bitcoin is viewed by some investors as a tool to combat inflation and currency devaluation. In particular, the weakening of the US dollar and expectations of global central bank interest rate cuts have enhanced Bitcoin's appeal as a non-sovereign credit asset.
The upcoming Bitcoin halving event (expected in 2026) has led to increased market expectations for reduced supply. Historical data shows that halving cycles are often accompanied by significant increases in Bitcoin prices, and this expectation has attracted speculative funds' attention.
