Behind the Bitcoin Pullback of #Metaplanet增持比特币 : A Mid-Bull Market Break or the End of the Trend? In-Depth Analysis

After Bitcoin surged to a high of $100,000, it entered a pullback mode, leaving many investors confused and conflicted, as they began to speculate whether this was merely a brief pause in the bull market or if the trend had reached its end.

First, let's analyze the critical factor of Bitcoin's halving mechanism. It is well-known that Bitcoin's production is halved every four years. Historical data shows that after previous halvings, the market typically sees a significant price peak about 1 to 1.5 years later. Based on this timeline, the peak moment is more likely to occur from late 2025 to early 2026, making the current pullback feel more like a halftime break. Additionally, when comparing the pullback magnitude, this time it only dropped by 30%, whereas in 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin experienced significant pullbacks of 45% and 53% respectively. In contrast, the current pullback is not particularly exaggerated. Moreover, the cost line for miners is currently around $78,000; if the price were to fall to this level, miners, considering their costs, would likely hold back on selling their Bitcoin, which would create a price support level, akin to a natural moat.

Next, let's turn our attention to the global monetary policy environment. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates next year, and other central banks may also follow suit by increasing the money supply. Bitcoin has a high correlation with the global money supply; when the money supply increases in the market, it often drives up the price of Bitcoin. Recently, gold prices have reached new highs, reflecting a demand for value-preserving assets from large investors, and Bitcoin, as an emerging value-preserving asset, naturally garners attention.

However, short-term risks should not be overlooked. Currently, in the price range of $70,000 to $75,000, there exists a long leverage position worth $42 billion. If the price falls below this range, it could trigger a chain reaction, like knocking down dominoes, leading to a series of liquidations and further price declines. From a technical analysis perspective, $73,000 is a key support level. If this level holds and the price can break through the $90,000 mark, it can be confirmed that the pullback trend has ended.