One, Why: Why is now a good time to increase BTC holdings?
1. Macroeconomic trends:
• Expectations for the Federal Reserve to pause interest rate hikes are strengthening, and market risk appetite is warming up;
• Geopolitical uncertainty (such as the Middle East, de-dollarization) boosts BTC's narrative as 'digital gold';
• Traditional institutions continue to enter (inflows from BlackRock, Fidelity ETF).
2. Cycle position:
• In April 2024, Bitcoin will complete its fourth halving; historical data shows that 12-18 months after halving is usually the main upward phase of a bull market;
• Currently in the early stage after the halving, not yet in the 'crazy speculation period', still in a structural accumulation phase.
3. On-chain data support:
• The proportion of long-term holding addresses (LTH) continues to rise;
• BTC balances on exchanges continue to decline, indicating a market preference for accumulation.
Two, How: What methods to use to increase Bitcoin holdings?
1. Dollar-cost averaging (DCA) strategy:
• Buy fixed amounts weekly/monthly, ignoring prices, to stabilize against volatility;
• It is recommended to combine on-chain transparent address records to form reputation assets (such as ENS + verifiable wallets).
2. Actively increase holdings:
• Combine technical analysis to layout key support levels (such as retracement to previous highs, 200-day moving average, etc.);
• Combine with derivatives market sentiment (such as negative funding rates, large short positions) for low-risk long accumulation.
3. Use earnings arbitrage to feed back into BTC:
• Use existing USDT funds to participate in low-risk arbitrage or liquidity mining on platforms like Backpack, StandX, Paradex;
• Convert earned profits to BTC every month, keeping the principal unchanged, achieving 'passive increase'.
Three, Where: On which platforms or methods is it more advantageous to act?
1. CeFi (Centralized):
• OKX/Bybit/Backpack: Support for dollar-cost averaging plans, compliance and transparency, support for sub-account fund management;
• Can combine BTC financial products (annualized 3-6%) for compound interest rolling.
2. DeFi (Decentralized):
• Cash out low-risk through Aave/WBTC staking lending strategies, then repurchase BTC;
• Or explore early opportunities in BTC Layer 2 (Stacks, Babylon, RSK), using ecological tokens for arbitrage to exchange for BTC.
3. NFT/GameFi earnings exchanged for BTC:
• If you have token gains in GameFi projects like MSU, Gomble, Vibes, you can sell at highs and exchange for BTC;
• Considered as the transformation of 'entertainment to value'.
Four, When: What is the arrangement for the accumulation rhythm?
• Recommended time period: Q4 2024 ~ Q2 2025 is the 'golden accumulation period of the bull market', after which speculation may accelerate;
• Psychological strategy recommendation: Hold firm when others are fearful, adjust mindset to combat FOMO, and avoid chasing highs at the top.
Five, Additional Alpha: Pathways for reputation-based BTC accumulation
You may consider creating a 'publicly transparent BTC accumulation address', combining Lens, Farcaster, or X to share regular accumulation records, building on-chain trust and reputation, which also facilitates future project airdrop identification of 'real crypto users'.