#中美贸易关系

The China-U.S. trade war has entered its seventh year, with both sides revealing their cards. This competition between the world's largest economies has evolved into a "situation where both sides want to stab each other while avoiding excessive blood loss".

1. The tariff war has struck a "seven-injury fist"

The U.S. has imposed tariffs as high as 245% on Chinese goods, which seems aggressive but has left American businesses and consumers complaining. Prices of everyday Chinese-made products on Walmart shelves have doubled, costing the average American family an additional $1,300 each year. Meanwhile, China has mitigated much of the tariff impact through currency devaluation and export tax rebates. Even more extreme is the 125% tariff on Boeing planes, which resulted in three 737 MAX aircraft being sent back to Seattle within four days, directly pinching the throat of America's high-end manufacturing sector.

2. The supply chain has turned into "Transformers"

The U.S. aims to relocate its supply chain to Southeast Asia, only to discover that Vietnamese garment factories are still using Chinese fabrics, and Indian mobile phone assembly lines are missing screws that need to be sourced from Shenzhen. China hasn't been idle either; Brazilian soybeans and Russian natural gas quickly filled the gaps, with ASEAN replacing the U.S. as the largest trading partner. The most intense battle is in semiconductors—domestic production of mature processes has jumped from 10% to 30%, and Yangtze Memory Technologies' flash memory chips have already made Samsung uneasy.

3. The tech war has opened a "new track"

The U.S. has banned Huawei's 5G technology, not expecting China to directly bet on 6G satellite communications; restrictions on the export of photolithography machines have led SMIC to produce 28-nanometer chips at rock-bottom prices. Currently, 60% of the world's new energy vehicles are produced in China, and CATL's batteries used in Tesla vehicles still come with patent fees. This confrontation resembles a game where the U.S. is busy blocking China's development, only to find its own high ground tower is about to be pushed down.

4. "Quantum entanglement" at the negotiating table

On one side, Trump claims "we'll finalize the trade agreement in three weeks," while China increases its holdings of U.S. debt by $23.5 billion but only buys short-term bonds. This maneuver resembles handing a lifeline to the opponent, but the rope is still in their own hands. Both sides have exchanged hard-nosed negotiators—U.S. Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross comes with a tariff exemption list, while China sends veteran anti-dumping negotiator Li Chenggang; this game is far from reaching its conclusion.