BTC has shown a phase of independent market behavior.
Bitcoin has completely surged. The US stock market has collapsed like this, while BTC quietly reached 88,000, recently outperforming the S&P and Nasdaq. This independent market trend is still somewhat surprising.
The 1-hour chart best reflects the process of long and short competition. It has been oscillating at high levels, with spikes up and down. You can only play short or long in the short term. The probability of a breakout is still quite high. The 88.2k range has always belonged to the bullish range, and if this range is broken, it will be easy to reach 91k. If it doesn't break up, there will be a deep pullback before attempting to break out again, with the pullback price around 85k-83k.
Although ETH's performance is weak, it currently has a high cost-performance ratio. The small-level price has touched the support range of 1,530-1,550. As long as it doesn't break down, there is still a great chance for a rebound. Therefore, if it touches the support range again, we will consider entering long positions to bet on a rebound.
Despite BTC's solid chip structure and strong support below 84,500 USD, we still need to be cautious of systemic risk-induced adjustments in the context of unclear macroeconomic conditions and increasing economic downturn expectations. It is recommended to observe the situation in the short term and focus on the stability of the on-chain support zone. However, from the support data, the 81,500 to 86,500 USD range is still a very good bottoming point, especially since the single price high of 84,500 USD has not been broken as the price rises. However, signs of some short-term investors leaving the market can indeed be seen, while investors in the 93,000 to 98,000 USD range seem to maintain a very stable state, as if price fluctuations have nothing to do with them.
From the current overall direction, it's not easy for BTC to independently reverse, especially after the GDP data is released at the end of the month. However, BTC does seem quite strong at the moment.
Why is Bitcoin continuously rising?
It has become the standard safe-haven asset after gold, as safe-haven assets are too scarce in the market. Gold itself has poor liquidity, or the market temporarily believes that gold has peaked, but Bitcoin is still in the undervalued range, leading to buying and price increases.
Let's take a look at the recent ETF data: last night, more than 300 million USD flowed into Bitcoin ETFs, with the highest inflow being ARKB at over 110 million USD. This clearly indicates that more institutions and wealthy individuals are starting to pay attention to Bitcoin. Currently, Bitcoin is showing a rebound trend on the 4-hour chart, with real pressure above around 91,000-96,000. It's quite difficult to maintain this level in the short term and will require some time to digest.
There’s a sudden development in altcoins! Paul S. Atkins has officially become the 34th Chairman of the SEC. It's worth noting that this person has a deep embrace of digital assets and has been the co-chair of the Digital Chamber's Token Alliance since 2017.
Currently, 9 altcoins and 4 meme tokens have submitted applications for spot ETFs.
The altcoins are SOL / XRP / LTC / ADA / AVAX / APT / SUI / MOVE / TRX. Meme tokens are DOGE / TRUMP / BONK / PENGU.
Among the altcoins that have submitted spot ETF applications, SOL / XRP / LTC / ADA / SUI are all so-called 'American coins', with teams having rich resources in the US or originally being project teams related to the US. The remaining AVAX / APT / MOVE / TRX belong to the WLFI investment portfolio. Generally speaking, applications for cryptocurrency spot ETFs represent traditional capital's interest in the token, suggesting that a large number of traditional investors will buy it. Once approved by the SEC, it signifies that the token complies with the US regulatory framework and can even be considered compliant and mainstream assets in a global view after launching a spot ETF in the US.
Next, it is very likely to be favorable for the cryptocurrencies that have submitted spot ETF applications.
Mainstream altcoins: SOL, XRP, LTC, ADA, AVAX, APT, SUI, MOVE, TRX.
Mainstream MEME coins: DOGE, TRUMP, BONK, PENGU.
Currently, the US has only approved spot ETFs for $BTC and $ETH. The new chair of the SEC just started in April, and providing final approval opinions will likely take some time.
Let's talk about the recent on-chain developments. MEME coins are still popular targets for speculation. Many MEMEs have returned to their initial starting points. If the altcoin season arrives, on-chain liquidity for good MEMEs that have been strongly speculated will definitely rise. It’s a good idea to pick up some that have previously surged significantly amidst this sharp drop. For example: PEPE, PNUT, DOGE, PENGU, etc., the more they drop, the better.
Let's talk about the news events to watch this week.
On Tuesday at 21:00, Fed Vice Chairman Jefferson will speak. This is currently the most critical moment to see whether officials are on Powell's side or lean towards Trump.
The G20 meeting on Wednesday primarily discussed the economy, so the market is bound to react a bit.
On Thursday at 2:00 AM, the Fed's beige book will be released. This period may also contain uncertainties and could cause significant fluctuations.
Currently, this trend is still a rebound. To reverse, the market needs to show confidence, and who provides that confidence?
Only Bitcoin remains. The biggest concern in the market still comes from Trump, dealing with tariffs. If he can calm down a bit, stabilize in April, and start promoting interest rate cut expectations in May, with cuts starting in June, this favorable outlook will activate one after another.