In the first months of 2025, global markets are facing a moment of increasing uncertainty. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq, which had been on a strong upward streak since mid-2023, have begun to show clear signs of exhaustion. The slowdown in economic growth in the U.S., combined with persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve's target, has reignited fears of a new monetary tightening. This scenario has led investors to reassess their exposure to traditional risk assets.
But has the $BTC already reached its peak for the current cycle?
Quickly, without beating around the bush, it can be stated that the Bitcoin bull cycle has not yet reached its peak, and on-chain data indicates there is potential for appreciation until the end of 2025.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $87,396, with a slight intraday appreciation. The adjusted on-chain transaction volume is on an upward trend, reflecting greater economic activity on the network.
Relevant On-Chain Indicators:
MVRV Z-Score: This indicator, which compares Bitcoin's market value with its realized value, suggests that the market is not yet overvalued. Historically, high values of this indicator coincide with market peaks, which has not yet been observed in this cycle.
Value Days Destroyed (VDD): The VDD, which measures the activity of old coins being moved, remains at low levels, indicating that long-term holders continue to maintain their positions.
Accumulation by Long-Term Holders: Data shows that long-term investors are accumulating Bitcoin, which historically precedes phases of significant appreciation.
Other On-Chain Indicators:
Increase in active addresses: indicating greater participation of investors.
Reduction of BTC on exchanges: suggesting that investors are choosing to keep their coins in private wallets, which may indicate expectations of appreciation.
Growth of large holders ("whales"): showing confidence of large investors in the asset.
These factors point to a sustained upward trend, with the possibility of new appreciations throughout 2025.
Finally, it is necessary to say again that "Patience will reward those who have the resilience to navigate through this stormy sea," so that at the end of the journey, they can sail through calmer seas and find solid ground.
*** It is advisable to continuously monitor market indicators and adjust investment strategies as necessary.