The trade war between the USA and China: how it may end
The trade war between the USA and China, which began back in 2018, remains one of the main factors of global economic instability. Despite temporary truces and phases of de-escalation, the fundamental contradictions between the two largest economies in the world persist. At the center of the conflict is the struggle for technological and economic leadership, control over supply chains, and strategic resources.
In recent years, the USA has tightened export restrictions on Chinese technologies, especially in the field of semiconductors and artificial intelligence. In response, China is developing its own technological independence, reducing reliance on American software and chips, investing in the localization of production, and strengthening ties with other countries, including Russia and BRICS nations.
Possible scenarios for the end of the conflict:
1. Agreement and restart of relations — an unlikely, but possible outcome with a change in political priorities in one of the countries. This will require significant concessions from both sides and lengthy negotiations.
2. Freezing of the conflict — the most likely scenario. Trade barriers will remain, but the parties will adapt to new conditions, focusing on internal development and alternative markets.
3. Deepening confrontation — in the event of increased protectionism, military provocations, or new sanctions packages, the situation could escalate into a long-term 'cold economic war'.
In summary: the trade war between the USA and China is not just a dispute over tariffs, but a systemic confrontation that will shape the global economy for decades to come.
