April 21, 2025

On Monday, before the U.S. stock market opened, the cryptocurrency market had already started a rally of its own, effortlessly breaking through 87,000. This surge gives me a feeling of inevitability, like vibrant green shoots that have absorbed enough moisture and naturally break through the soil.

After the ETF approval, the trend of 14,164,620,432 shows signs of correlation with the U.S. stock market. However, like gold, Bitcoin is an ultra-asset independent of any single market. There’s no need to envy gold's 26.7% increase this year; since $BTC has caught Wall Street's attention and has been praised by Powell, it is inevitable that it will replicate gold's long bull market in the coming years.

Current market analysis:

Bitcoin is similar to our previous expectations, with the only difference being that the low point only dropped to 746, which is higher than our expected range of 71,000 to 73,000. Of course, this is reasonable as the previous high successfully provided support.

Currently, it seems that Bitcoin has completed a rebound from 110,000 to 7.46, with 90,000 starting to become resistance, so the mid-range of the current rebound, which has the highest certainty, has already been consumed. However, altcoins seem to show no signs of improvement, including most mainstream assets, such as 46,916,377,619.

I suggest that everyone view $BTC and $SOL, which have a high level of Wall Street participation, separately from altcoins represented by Ethereum. The former is like spring, while the latter remains in winter; perhaps it can only recover to the 0.382 to 0.618 drop, and breaking previous highs may be very difficult.

This is currently the best scenario, allowing retail investors to remain trapped while Bitcoin rallies again.

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