Analysis time: 21/04/2025 20:55 UTC
## MARKET OVERVIEW
Ethereum is in a technical recovery phase after the strong adjustment earlier in April, with the current price at $1,618.80. In the past two weeks, ETH has recovered from the low of $1,385.05 (on April 9), but is still far from the high of $2,104.11 (on March 24). Recent price movements indicate that ETH is in a short-term accumulation phase, with average volatility around 5.95% on the 4H frame.
Futures market data shows that sentiment is balanced with a slight positive funding rate (0.0001), and the long/short ratio is 1.0000. This reflects investors' indecision about the market's next direction. Open interest currently stands at 1,648,262 ETH, with no notable spikes.
## MULTI-TIME FRAME TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
### Daily time frame (D1)
On the D1 frame, ETH remains in a medium-term downtrend. MACD is deeply negative (-73.2869) and RSI (43.23) is in the neutral zone leaning negative. Notably, EMA7 has begun to rise (1602.0182) and is curving upwards, while EMA20 (1655.7266) is still declining, creating a large gap between these two averages.
Despite signs of recovery, the long-term downtrend has yet to be broken. To confirm a reversal, the price needs to break above the $1,660-$1,670 range with significant volume. Currently, the D1 frame remains cautious, with the traffic light in RED.
### 4-hour time frame (4H)
On the 4H frame, the trend has shifted to a more positive outlook. RSI is at 55.02 (neutral leaning positive) and MACD is positive (5.2039) with an increasing histogram, indicating a bullish momentum is forming. EMA7 (1616.2429) is above EMA20 (1605.9233), creating a short-term bullish structure.
The price has created a series of higher lows and higher highs in the past 48 hours, indicating a short-term bullish trend. The next key resistance levels are $1,634.50 and $1,645.92. The 4H frame is signaling GREEN, encouraging short-term trades in the bullish direction.
### 1-hour time frame (1H)
The 1H frame shows a slight adjustment after a recent strong increase. RSI is at 50.09 (balanced) and MACD remains positive (9.0639) but is gradually decreasing, reflecting a weakening of short-term bullish momentum. EMA7 (1629.3547) is still above EMA20 (1622.6691), but the gap is narrowing.
In the last 6 hours, ETH has adjusted from a high of $1,649.16 to $1,618.80, equivalent to about 1.8%. Several bearish candle patterns such as Doji, Hammer, and Engulfing have appeared, warning of the potential for continued adjustment. The traffic light on the 1H frame is in YELLOW.
### 15-minute time frame (15M)
On the 15M frame, ETH is showing signs of short-term weakness with RSI gradually decreasing from overbought territory. MACD has turned negative (-4.0457), reflecting short-term selling pressure. Trading volume is erratic but tends to increase as prices decrease, a negative sign.
The price pattern on the 15M frame shows the possibility of continuing to adjust down to the $1,615-$1,610 range before possibly recovering. The traffic light on the 15M frame is in YELLOW, recommending caution with ultra-short-term trades.
## CASH FLOW AND INDICATORS ANALYSIS
### Orderbook and Liquidity
Order book data shows a slight imbalance leaning towards selling (imbalance volume ratio: 0.9691). Total bid volume is 4,720.99 ETH, while total ask volume is 4,871.31 ETH. This indicates slight selling pressure in the short term.
The depth of the order book is average, with a bid depth of 0.1% at 931.17 ETH and an ask depth of 0.1% at 875.76 ETH. The spread is very low (0.0006%), indicating good liquidity at the time of analysis. Overall, liquidity data does not indicate any significant abnormalities.
### Volume Analysis
Recent trading volume shows no unusual signs, fluctuating around average. On the 4H frame, volume tends to increase when prices rise and decrease when prices adjust, a positive sign. However, recent rallies are not supported by large volumes compared to the sell-off in early April, indicating investor caution.
The trading buy/sell ratio is 66.51, leaning towards buying, although the order book shows slight selling pressure. This may indicate that investors are willing to buy at market prices but place sell orders higher, reflecting short-term bullish expectations.
## MARKET PATTERNS AND STRUCTURES
### Candle Patterns and Reversal Patterns
Bearish candle patterns (Doji, Hammer, Shooting Star, Engulfing) appearing in the most recent candle are worth noting. These are often signs of potential reversal or at least hesitation in the bullish momentum.
No major reversal patterns were detected, but the market structure is in a consolidation phase following a strong recovery from the bottom. This is often a sign of market indecision and may lead to significant volatility after the consolidation phase ends.
### Fibonacci Analysis and Psychological Price Levels
Based on the adjustment from $2,104.11 down to $1,385.05, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level is around $1,658 - close to the recent high ($1,658.75). This will be an important resistance if bullish momentum continues.
Important psychological price levels include:
- $1,600 (strong psychological support)
- $1,650 (psychological resistance)
- $1,700 (major psychological resistance)
### Bull/Bear Trap Potential
With the current market structure, the risk of a Bull Trap is about 35% if the price breaks above $1,645 but cannot maintain above this level. Factors such as deeply negative MACD D1 and long-term downtrend increase this likelihood.
The Bear Trap risk is about 30% in the $1,600 region if the price falls below this level but quickly recovers. Low volume during the decline and the presence of buying power at lower levels may lead to this phenomenon.
## TRADING SCENARIOS AND PROBABILITIES
### Positive scenario (55%)
ETH continues to rise, breaking through resistance at $1,634.50 and heading towards $1,645.92 in the next 12-24 hours. Bullish momentum may come from improvements in technical indicators and new money flowing into the market. RSI could rise to the 60-70 range on the 1H and 4H frames, confirming the bullish trend.
Activation condition: Break above $1,625 with increased volume, 1H MACD remains positive and histogram increases.
### Negative scenario (35%)
ETH is adjusting downwards, breaking support at $1,615 and heading towards $1,600 or even $1,586. MACD may turn negative on the 1H frame, and RSI drops below 40. Increased selling pressure could push prices lower, especially if $1,600 cannot hold.
Activation condition: Break below $1,615 with high volume, 1H MACD turns negative, RSI drops below 45.
### Neutral scenario (10%)
ETH continues to trade within a narrow range of $1,615-$1,625, with no clear breakout expected in the next 24 hours. Trading volume is decreasing, reflecting investor caution before new information.
## TRADE PROPOSALS AND RISK MANAGEMENT
Based on a comprehensive analysis, I propose the following trading suggestions:
### Recommendation: SCALP BUY (Cautious)
- Entry: $1,618.80 (current) or retest $1,615
- Stop Loss: $1,600.00 (-1.16%)
- Take Profit 1: $1,634.50 (+0.97%)
- Take Profit 2: $1,645.92 (+1.67%)
- Take Profit 3: $1,658.75 (+2.47%)
- R:R: 0.84 (TP1/SL)
- Success probability: 55%
- Expected Value: 0.05% capital
### Position allocation:
- Proposed capital: 2% (no leverage used)
- TP allocation: 60% at TP1, 30% at TP2, 10% at TP3
- Order type: LIMIT BUY at $1,615 or MARKET BUY if it breaks above $1,625
### Additional risk management:
- Time Stop: Exit after 12 hours if the price does not reach TP1
- Break-even adjust: Move SL to breakeven when price reaches $1,627
- Risk per trade: 0.4% of maximum capital
Note that this recommendation is most suitable for scalp traders with a medium to high risk appetite. Long-term or cautious investors should wait for clearer confirmation of the trend.
## KEY POINTS TO MONITOR
1. Bullish confirmation: Break above $1,625 with increased volume, RSI 1H > 60, MACD 1H increasing.
2. Bearish warning: Break below $1,615 with high volume, RSI 4H < 50, new bearish candle pattern
3. Macroeconomic factors: Market news can impact ETH, especially information related to regulations or technological advancements.
4. Correlation with BTC: Bitcoin often leads the market, so monitor BTC's volatility to predict ETH's movements.
## CONCLUSION
ETHUSDT is in a technical recovery phase from the sell-off in early April, but has not confirmed a reversal of the long-term downtrend. Technical indicators on the 1H and 4H frames are positive, while the D1 frame remains negative, creating a complex market picture.
In the short term, ETH has a chance to rise to the $1,634-$1,645 range but also faces the risk of adjusting down to $1,600 if it fails to maintain upward momentum. The conflict between time frames recommends a cautious approach, trading only with small positions and tight risk management.
The overall traffic light is in YELLOW, suitable for a more cautious SCALP BUY recommendation rather than a long-term buy position. Investors should prepare for both upward and downward scenarios, prioritizing risk management and capital preservation in the current uncertain market context.
