In-depth market analysis - 21/04/2025
## I. MARKET OVERVIEW
Bitcoin is undergoing an impressive recovery phase after the correction in early April. The current BTCUSDT price is trading at $87,273.81, an increase of over 2.45% in the past 24 hours. This is a significant increase continuing the recovery from the $74,508 price area (the lowest recorded on April 7, 2025).
The market is currently showing signs of a bullish cycle with low to medium volatility, typical of an accumulation phase after a correction. Data from the 1h, 4h, and 1d timeframes all indicate a bullish trend is gradually forming, although there are still some conflicting signals that need to be monitored.
## II. IN-DEPTH TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
### 2.1 Multi-Timeframe Analysis
1 Day (1d):
The RSI indicator on the 1d timeframe is currently at 59.11, still in the bullish zone but not yet overbought. Notably, the EMA7 (85,185.61) has crossed above the EMA20 (84,141.41), forming a 'Golden Cross' pattern - a reliable bullish signal. The MACD is at 400.72 with increasing momentum, supporting the bullish scenario in the medium term.
4 Hour (4h):
The RSI on the 4h timeframe is at 69.48, approaching the overbought region (70). This is a warning signal for a potential short-term correction, although it is not yet a reversal signal. The MACD continues to show strong upward momentum (542.82) but attention should be paid to the possibility of divergence if the price does not continue to rise. The EMA7 > EMA20 pattern confirms the ongoing upward trend.
1 Hour (1h):
On the 1h timeframe, the RSI is at 65.93, still in the bullish zone but not overbought. The MACD (593.89) continues to show upward momentum, although it shows signs of slowing down. This aligns with a temporary accumulation before continuing the trend. Notably, the directional EMA pattern (EMA 7, 20, 50) maintains an increasing order, confirming the trend.
15 Minute (15m):
RSI at 51.40, indicating a balance between buying and selling pressure in the short term. The MACD (-8.79) shows weak momentum and is shifting to neutral. This timeframe is showing a short-term accumulation phase, requiring monitoring for breakout or rejection signals.
### 2.2 Technical Indicator Analysis
RSI (Relative Strength Index):
- RSI 4h: 69.48 (near overbought zone)
- RSI 1h: 65.93 (bullish zone, not overbought yet)
- RSI 1d: 59.11 (average bullish zone)
The RSI indicator shows that upward momentum is still maintained, but on the 4h timeframe, it is approaching overbought territory. This suggests the possibility of a short-term correction or sideways accumulation before continuing the trend.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):
- MACD 4h: 542.82 (strong increase)
- MACD 1h: 593.89 (strong increase)
- MACD 1d: 400.72 (strong increase)
The positive MACD is increasing across all important timeframes, confirming strong upward momentum. However, attention must be paid to slowing growth that may lead to divergence if prices do not continue to rise.
Moving Average (EMA):
The EMA7 > EMA20 > EMA50 pattern appears on the 1h and 4h timeframes, confirming the ongoing upward trend. The distance between the EMA lines is widening, demonstrating the strength of the current trend.
### 2.3 Candle Patterns and Market Structure
Recent candle pattern analysis shows several conflicting signals. According to the data, candle patterns such as DOJI, HAMMER, SHOOTING_STAR, and ENGULFING all appear with bearish signals, although still within the overall bullish trend. This is a warning not to be overlooked, especially when appearing alongside the RSI approaching overbought territory on the 4h timeframe.
The price structure is maintaining a higher high - higher low pattern, characteristic of a bullish market. However, recent price pushes have not really had strong support from volume, creating a potential weakness in the trend structure.
## III. ORDERBOOK AND MARKET DATA ANALYSIS
### 3.1 Order Book Analysis
Current order book data indicates a slight imbalance leaning towards selling:
- Bid/ask volume ratio: 0.7492
- Bid/ask value ratio: 0.7484
- Buying pressure: Low.
- Selling pressure: Average.
This imbalance is inconsistent with the current upward price movement, creating a conflicting signal to pay attention to. This may suggest a potential short-term correction or hidden bull trap risks if prices continue to breach resistance levels.
### 3.2 Futures Data
- Funding rate: 0.0001 (slightly positive)
- Annual funding rate: 5.9163%
- Open interest: 84,296.60
- Long/Short ratio: 1.0000 (neutral)
Futures data indicates the market is in a balanced state, with a long/short ratio of 1.0 and a slightly positive funding rate. This reflects cautious market sentiment leaning towards positivity, with no signs of excessive confidence or panic.
### 3.3 Liquidity Analysis
- Spread percentage: 0.0000 (extremely low)
- Total depth: 8.2538.
- Buy/sell trading ratio: 1.3293
- Assessment: Good (60.33/100)
The market's liquidity is at a good level, with an almost negligible spread. The buy/sell trading ratio is 1.3293, indicating slightly lower buying pressure in actual trades, creating a positive signal contrary to the order book data.
## IV. SUPPORT, RESISTANCE, AND IMPORTANT PRICE LEVELS
Data does not show clear support and resistance levels from automated analysis. However, based on structural and price behavior analysis, the following important levels can be identified:
Resistance levels:
- R1: $88,000 (psychological level)
- R2: $88,800 (the most recent peak area)
- R3: $90,000 (major psychological level)
Support levels:
- S1: $87,000 (nearest psychological support)
- S2: $86,500 (previous accumulation zone)
- S3: $86,000 (strong psychological support level)
Notably, there is a potential high volume node (high volume concentration point) in the $86,500-$87,000 range, which may act as support if the price corrects.
## V. TRAP DETECTION AND WARNING
### 5.1 Bull Trap Risks
The risk of a bull trap is currently at a notable level (around 40%) in the $88,000-$88,800 range. Contributing factors to this risk include:
- RSI approaching overbought territory on the 4h timeframe
- Bearish candle pattern appears on the most recent candle (DOJI, HAMMER, SHOOTING_STAR, ENGULFING).
- The order book leans towards selling with a ratio of 0.75.
- Trading volume has not increased in line with price increases.
Signs of a bull trap will be price rejection at resistance levels with increasing volume, followed by a rapid drop below the $87,000 zone.
### 5.2 Bear Trap Risks
The bear trap risk is lower, at around 20% in the $86,000-$86,500 range. The market is in an overall bullish trend, so sudden declines may be buying opportunities rather than true reversal signals.
### 5.3 Indicator Conflicts
There are some notable contradictions between indicators and market data:
1. RSI near the overbought zone on the 4h timeframe vs. strong increasing MACD.
2. The order book leans toward the sell side vs. increasing price action and buy/sell ratio > 1
3. Bearish candle patterns on the most recent candle vs. overall bullish trend.
4. Average volume vs. significant price increases.
The level of contradiction is currently at medium and needs to be closely monitored to assess potential reversal signals.
## VI. TRADING STRATEGY
### 6.1 Trading Plan
Based on the analysis above, a balanced trading strategy can be suggested as follows:
Entry strategy:
- Main entry: $87,273.81 (current price) with a 40% position.
- Alternative entry: $87,000 (near support) with 30% position
- Contingent entry: $86,500 (stronger support) with the remaining 30% position.
Exit strategy:
- Take Profit 1: $88,800 (resistance) - 40% position
- Take Profit 2: $89,500 (1.75% from TP1) - 30% position
- Take Profit 3: $90,200 (2.55% from TP1) - 30% position
- Stop Loss: $86,000 (1.46% from the current price)
Trailing stop:
Activating a trailing stop when the price reaches $88,000, with a distance of 1% from the highest point achieved.
### 6.2 Risk Management
- Risk/reward ratio: 2.0 (average of targets)
- Maximum risk per trade: 1.5% of capital
- Total proposed position: 5% of capital
- Maximum leverage: 2x (depending on risk tolerance).
### 6.3 Market Scenarios
Main scenario (60% probability):
- Price continues the current upward trend, breaching $88,000 and heading towards $88,800.
- A short accumulation phase may occur before breaking through resistance.
- Final target at $90,000+ in the next 3-5 days.
Alternative scenario (30% probability):
- Short-term correction to the $86,500-$87,000 range before continuing the upward trend.
- Increasing volume in the support zone will be a positive signal.
- Slower breakout, could take 5-7 days to reach $90,000.
Negative scenario (10% probability):
- Strong rejection at $88,000 leading to a deep correction below $86,000.
- A break below $85,000 could signal a short-term trend reversal.
- The target could then be $83,000-$84,000.
## VII. SUITABILITY ASSESSMENT FOR INVESTORS
Based on the analysis, the suitability level for different types of investors can be assessed:
Cautious investor (3/10):
- The risk of a bull trap and bearish candle patterns are concerning factors.
- RSI near the overbought zone may lead to a short-term correction.
- The lack of clear support levels increases the risk for loss mitigation strategies.
Balanced investor (7/10):
- The bullish trend across multiple timeframes provides trading opportunities in the direction of the trend.
- Attractive risk/reward ratio with clear entry and exit strategies.
- Position distribution helps mitigate the risks of short-term volatility.
Risky investor (6/10):
- The bullish trend offers opportunities for leveraged positions.
- However, conflicting signals and bull trap risks need to be considered.
- Current low volatility may not be sufficient for optimal short-term profits.
## VIII. TRAFFIC LIGHT SYSTEM
The traffic light system provides a composite assessment of various timeframes:
| Timeframe | Signal | Trend Score | Momentum Score |
|-----------|----------|------------|----------------|
| 15m | Yellow | 5/10 | 5/10 |
| 1h | Green | 7/10 | 7/10 |
| 4h | Green | 8/10 | 7/10 |
| 1d | Green | 7/10 | 6/10 |
| SUMMARY | Green | 7/10 | 6/10 |
The traffic light system shows positive signals across longer timeframes, while the 15m timeframe shows neutrality. This is a sign of a bullish trend gradually forming, with some short-term hesitation.
## IX. CONCLUSION AND POINTS TO WATCH
Bitcoin is in a notable upward trend, with positive momentum on longer timeframes. However, conflicting short-term signals and bull trap risks require caution. A balanced trading strategy with position distribution and tight risk management is a reasonable approach in the current situation.
Points to watch:
1. Resistance level $88,000-$88,800: How the price reacts here will determine the likelihood of a breakout or reversal.
2. RSI on the 4h timeframe: If it surpasses the overbought zone (70+) and maintains, it is a positive signal. Conversely, RSI divergence would be a significant warning.
3. Trading volume: Increasing volume when prices rise confirms the trend. Decreasing volume when prices rise is a sign of weakening.
4. Candle patterns on the 4h and 1d: Changing from the current negative candle pattern to a confirming bullish trend candle pattern would reinforce the optimistic scenario.
5. Order book imbalance: If the imbalance ratio improves (from 0.75 moving closer to 1.0), it is a positive signal for the continuation of the trend.
The Bitcoin market is still in a recovery phase after a correction, with the potential for continued growth. However, investors need to be cautious of conflicting short-term signals and maintain discipline in trading strategies to optimize results in this volatile environment.
