📉 BTC at Crossroads: Will $82K Hold or Break Down?
As of April 21, 2025, Bitcoin is trading near $82,000, forming a tight consolidation zone after its recent push from the $74K support. But where are we headed next?
🔍 Technical Analysis:
1. Price Structure:
BTC is in a clear macro uptrend, but the recent movement has formed a potential rising wedge—a pattern that can break down if volume declines.
• Support: $78.8K (horizontal zone)
• Resistance: $83.2K – key supply area
• Trendline support: ascending from March low near $69K
2. RSI Divergence:
On the 4H and Daily chart, RSI shows lower highs while price makes higher highs → this bearish divergence often precedes short-term correction.
3. Funding Rates:
📈 Slightly overheated. Binance & Bybit funding turning positive (>0.02%), indicating long bias might be too crowded.
4. Volume Profile:
Declining volume on the way up. Without a breakout candle >$83.5K with strong volume, bulls may struggle to push higher.
🚀 Bullish Scenario (Breakout):
• BTC reclaims $84K with volume surge
• Likely targets: $89K short-term, then retest ATH near $92K
• Confirmation: Daily close above wedge + RSI reset above 60
⚠️ Bearish Scenario (Breakdown):
• Breaks below $78.8K → first target $74K
• If wedge breaks hard, we could see a liquidity sweep to $69K
• Watch for high OI + declining spot buying
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🧠 Strategy Insight:
• Swing traders: Consider hedging long exposure with tight stop-loss below $78.5K
• DCA investors: Pullback = opportunity (macro trend still intact)
• Derivatives: Only scalp until volatility breakout is confirmed
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📊 Your Turn:
Where do you see BTC heading this week?
Are you buying the dip or waiting for confirmation