As of April 21, 2025, the trade relations between China and the United States continue to be tense, with both sides' tariff war further escalating. Here is a detailed analysis of the current situation:
1. Tariff escalation:
• The U.S. government announced to impose 'reciprocal tariffs' of up to 125% on goods imported from China, with some product rates even increasing to 245%.
• China's procurement of U.S. goods has significantly decreased, and both sides have imposed counter-tariffs exceeding 100% on each other's products.
2. Economic impact:
• China's import volume of U.S. goods has sharply declined, especially agricultural products.
• The U.S. tariff policy on Chinese goods has led many American companies to shift manufacturing and procurement to other countries, reducing their business in China.
3. Diplomatic and political:
• The Chinese government issued a white paper titled 'China's Position on Several Issues Regarding China-U.S. Economic and Trade Relations' in response to the escalating tariff war by the Trump administration.
• Chinese Ambassador to the U.S. Xie Feng emphasized that China opposes any form of tariff war and trade war.
4. Market reaction:
• Despite the escalation of the tariff war, the Chinese market shows a certain level of resilience, with exporters openly stating they are facing unprecedented pressure at the Canton Fair.
• Global oilseed market prices have fluctuated, with soybean prices dropping due to crushing and weak exports, while Canadian canola remains strong due to robust demand.
5. International reaction:
• Several economists jointly criticized Trump's tariff policy, stating it is a 'misstep.'
• The World Trade Organization (WTO) warned that Trump's tariff policy could lead to a global trade volume decrease of up to 1.5%.
6. Future outlook:
• Trump stated that China has come to negotiate and hopes to start trade talks, suggesting that U.S. tariffs on China may be adjusted in the future.
• Experts believe that the negative impacts of the tariff war may prompt the U.S. government to consider adjusting related policies.
In summary, China-U.S. trade relations remain tense as of April 2025, with both sides' tariff war further escalating, having profound effects on the global economy and markets. Nevertheless, both sides are still seeking the possibility of resolving disputes through negotiations.