The market has once again entered a period of silence, so I will write about what I see as garbage time in the crypto circle.
Finding layout angles in the bull market through reflections in the bear market.
The night before dawn
I entered the industry during a cold winter when the 'crypto circle' had not yet formed, with only a few hundred practitioners.
Now everyone can see more and more excellent female practitioners entering the Web3 industry, as if their participation has become a symbol of the industry's prosperity.
But in 2015, there were pitifully few female practitioners.
That year Bitcoin prices were low, and everyone in the industry couldn't see tomorrow; the top player temporarily left the crypto circle to become an executive at Miaopai.
The two most active female practitioners in the industry happen to manage the two liveliest groups.
One is the Yangyang interview group led by Erbao's wife, and the other is Ruby's Coin View Angel user group.
However, the two groups combined had less than 500 people.
Exchanges cannot sustain themselves solely on fees; they must rely on 'lending' copied over from P2P to support operational costs.
Huobi, OKcoin, BTCtrade, and BTCC are known as the 'Four Major Exchanges,' showing that they are professional 'Bitcoin exchanges,' thus having no income from listing fees.
At that time, the founders who were barbecuing shirtless on the roadside in Zhongguancun never imagined that today they would be famous, nor did they think that their peers working upstairs would fly into space, and they never imagined that the industry would have direct ties to the President of the United States and the world's richest people.
I never expected that the first to stand on the windward side to feast would be those inconspicuous altcoin exchanges.
In 2016, during Trump's first term, Bitcoin surged to its previous high of 7,000 RMB, like a rooster crowing before dawn, marking the beginning of a crazy bull market.
This round of bull market does not belong to Bitcoin holders; it is the spring of altcoins.
Jubi, Yuanbao Network, and Bit Era stepped into the spotlight. After midnight, chaos erupted, with 100%-300% increases flooding the screen, and Jubi was dubbed the 'Jubi Casino' by the public.
Being bold and daring was the key to gaining profits at that time; ICOs were rewards for the brave. My first single coin A7 was also completed at that time, and Gongxinbao surged over tenfold upon launch.
Our exchange also rode the spring breeze, ranking first globally based on real trading volume, at that time every colleague was highly motivated to work overtime voluntarily, and I experienced the saying from Lei Jun: 'When the wind blows, even pigs can fly.'
All this madness came to a sudden stop in '94, and that night I sat on the sofa watching Bitcoin plummet, thinking the industry had come to an end.
Later developments are well known; a month later, a comeback occurred, and Bitcoin validated Nietzsche's famous saying: 'What does not kill me makes me stronger.'
代投 was the most profitable 'profession' at that time, making money effortlessly through connections, information asymmetry, and resource differences. The industry's 'game' became more frequent, and that's when the term 'crypto circle' came about.
代投 made many people successful and also helped Ethereum. Interestingly, those who were used to making 'easy money' through代投 could not continue to strive, and most retreated and became despondent; meanwhile, Ethereum also lost its shine. It was as if in a time-space mirror: all the brilliance then is now paid back with silence.
The signal that the bull market has peaked is the rampant promotion by mainstream media. In the Spring Festival of 2018, at 3 am, blockchain became popular. When I woke up, the group had new members like Gao Xiaosong and Tong Liya wishing everyone a Happy New Year and giving out red envelopes. 'Blockchain' topped Tencent Technology's front page, and the second round of cold winter quietly began amid the revelry.
The winter snow covers the seeds of spring.
In 2018, a large number of practitioners poured in, with media, exchanges, and investment institutions blooming everywhere.
Everyone brought investment funds and Web2 resources, ready to make a big move, but achieving results during the cold winter is extremely challenging.
The first round of dividends brought first-mover advantages, but also made people complacent. My memory of that time is one of confusion; clearly, two years ago, we needed to continuously expand users in P2P and stock groups. In the blink of an eye, two years later, we were negotiating cooperation with firms like Matrix Partners and ZhenFund, and one can't help but feel a bit lazy, complacent, and arrogant.
At that time, the media practitioners who poured in continued to focus deeply, with several becoming top KOLs on X; I only discovered this after joining Twitter last month. While others were struggling through the bear market, I wasted a lot of time, which I have been reflecting on since then.
Just like during the internet bubble, many projects and VCs couldn't survive that round of cold winter, and some people permanently left the industry. I still remember some prominent figures went bankrupt for various reasons, Binance and OKX also struggled out of that low point. Meanwhile, some of our peers, due to policy and vision issues, forever exited the ranking of exchanges.
As the market's dividend period fades, the real competition begins. The continued sluggishness of the secondary market forces exchanges to innovate continuously, and the derivatives track becomes the new battlefield.
OK first launched perpetual contracts, and the battles among traders began. Today’s active trader KOLs had already emerged on Weibo back then, and even I, someone who doesn't trade contracts, was quite familiar with them.
Liang Xi has been emphasizing that the industry should not underestimate contract players. The reason he wants to prove that contract players have a higher level than other practitioners is that it is a real battlefield where knives are drawn and punches are thrown; those who can walk out of the contract arena are not ordinary people.
What struck me even more is that many big players who could afford to lay flat due to their success ended up going bankrupt due to contracts, becoming ordinary people. It shows how low the threshold is for contracts; once you step in, you can open a position, but behind that threshold is a thousand-layer staircase, where each step is arduous, and a slight misstep can lead to a fall into the abyss. Those traders who are seen standing on the platform have all gone through hardships. So I always advise everyone to avoid leverage unless they have systematically learned about it; the contract market knows your weaknesses better than you do.
Besides contracts, every wave of discussion that could arise during the cold winter was a trap for harvesting—first the rise and fall of Fcoin, followed by funding projects driving the prosperity of exchanges, while Bell Chain made ZB, and VDS made MXC. After the only active users on-site were repeatedly harvested, the industry fell silent.
I once again lost confidence, selling 400 BTC and 2,000 ETH during that cold winter, purchasing my first property in Beijing. Now, with the real estate market declining, prices in Beijing have dropped by 30%, but I still can't bear to sell this property; the bag is just too heavy.
It can be seen that in a bear market, continuous construction and investing in oneself is the right choice, whether as a media person or a trader. When the cold winter dissipates, a more professional era led by institutions begins, and the little people who endure the winter become the new heroes.
Sisyphus's boulder
DeFi Summer made me feel the charm of technological innovation for the first time; Web3 was no longer just empty talk in white papers.
However, the various layered designs made me uneasy. In 2021, I started to reduce leverage, cut back on positions, and keep only a small portion of profits.
Sure enough, just as I expected, because DeFi collapsed.
I narrowly escaped the Luna crash and the subsequent series of declines; being cautious has become the only advantage after many years in the industry.
The crypto circle has once again entered a cold winter, with practitioners feeling low, reduced market volatility, and extreme shrinkage in trading volume, casting a shadow over everyone's heart.
Choosing how to spend garbage time leads everyone in different directions.
Most of the creators and KOLs in the simplified Chinese circle surged into Twitter during this cold winter. When everyone couldn't see the light, they still tried to strike a spark with their matches.
The '毛工作室' also became popular during this time. This initially inconspicuous gold mining strategy eventually developed into a livelihood.
Matches became torches, and torches became flaming beacons, showing that never losing hope is the most important quality of Web3; I have always kept this reminder pinned at the top of my social media.
A bull market is a grand retreat; Sisyphus pushes the boulder uphill time and again, only for it to roll back down.
Selling profits in an up cycle and being filled with hope in a down cycle was the most valuable experience during that cold winter.
In the current chaotic and disorderly situation
Now we have once again entered the industry's cold winter, with a lack of liquidity in the secondary market and no trustworthy or promising targets.
The PVP game has plunged the market into a zero-sum battle, with new assets continuously issued, causing the remaining on-site funds to be constantly diverted.
The depth of exchanges is becoming thinner; seeing K-line cliffs almost every day; getting itchy on Dogecoin can lead to losses; shorting new coins can easily result in a margin call.
This is truly garbage time, as everyone's positions are affected.
Based on the experience of several rounds of bull-bear transitions, finding one's own alpha may be the key to breaking the deadlock.
Traders do not make bullish or bearish judgments; they only go long in an uptrend and short in a downtrend. However, a trader's trading strategy is not formed in a day, and it is very difficult to learn.
Practitioners from other professions are also turning to unfamiliar fields to try their hand, and I am also learning the PVP mindset.
As long as you keep developing cautiously during the cold winter, you will always wait for spring.
I suggest everyone exercise outdoors, minimize operations; controlling your hands is winning.
Climb more mountains, fish, hike, or work out; the release of endorphins greatly alleviates anxiety, and staying away from electronic devices can maximize focus.
Climbing mountains, hiking, catching big fish, and achieving fitness goals can enrich one's spiritual core, making you feel truly remarkable, adding +1 to life's support.
And this is true wealth.
In a complete bull market cycle, the most explosive golden windows often last only 1-2 months, just like the 30 days starting from November 2017 that swept everything away, and the miraculous hundredfold occurrences in May 2021.
During this crazy cycle, seizing 2-3 opportunities is enough.
Stay focused, be sharp and decisive, and swing hard for a home run when an opportunity arises.
But all of this is based on the premise that:
Do not exit the market, nor sit on the sidelines; maintain your player identity;
Ensure you have the physical capital to swing the bat;
Do not lose the courage to swing just because you have missed multiple opportunities.
May everyone hit many singles and ultimately hit a home run.
