In April 2025, Solana (SOL) returned to the focus of the crypto market with a strong performance of 13% weekly increase. After experiencing a 60% plunge from a high of $293 at the beginning of the year, SOL recently rebounded from around $110 to the $135 range, and the market discussion on whether it can break through the $200 mark has heated up again. This article will combine technical indicators, ecological dynamics and macro environment to deeply analyze SOL's short-term momentum and long-term potential.
1. Market Review: From Plunge to Recovery, SOL Shows Resilience
1. Price volatility and market sentiment
In January 2025, SOL hit a historical high of $293.31, but affected by macroeconomic policies (such as Trump's tariff shock) and FTX's bankruptcy and liquidation risks, the price fell all the way to around $117, a drop of more than 60%. However, the rebound in the past week showed that market sentiment was gradually recovering: SOL climbed from a low of $115 to $135, trading volume increased by 24.88% to $4.76 billion, and open interest rebounded simultaneously, suggesting that institutional funds have re-entered the market.
2. Key event driven
- FTX liquidation pressure eased: Although FTX plans to sell $800 million in assets (61% of which are SOL) on May 30, the market has partially digested this negative news, and short-term selling pressure is concentrated in the second half of April.
- Ecosystem recovery: Solana’s DEX trading volume increased by 43% to US$11.16 billion in April, surpassing Ethereum, and the total locked value (TVL) rebounded to 41 million SOL, mainly driven by the Meme coin craze.
- Technology upgrade expectations: The Firedancer validator test network led by Jump Crypto is about to be launched, which is expected to increase the network throughput to 1 million TPS and become a long-term value support.
2. Technical analysis: key resistance and breakthrough signals
1. Short-term support and resistance
- Support levels: $110 (multiple verified strong support), $117 (recent rebound starting point).
- Resistance levels: $130 (psychological barrier and Fibonacci 0.236 retracement level), $150 (medium-term rebound target), $180 (upward acceleration after breakthrough).
2. Indicator signals
- RSI and MACD: The daily RSI rebounded from the oversold area (30) to 65, and the MACD showed a bottom divergence, indicating that buying momentum has strengthened.
- Moving average system: The 50-hour moving average is about to cross the 200-hour moving average, forming a "golden cross". If it stands above $130, the short-term trend will turn bullish.
- Volume verification: A breakout above $125 is accompanied by an increase in trading volume, confirming that bulls are dominant.
3. Fundamental catalysts: ecological expansion and institutional layout
1. The developer ecosystem is booming
Solana continues to attract DeFi and NFT project migration with its low transaction fees (about $0.001 per transaction) and high throughput (6,500 TPS). In Q1 2025, its on-chain active addresses increased by 35%, and the number of newly deployed smart contracts surpassed Avalanche and Polygon, becoming the second largest development platform after Ethereum.
2. Institutional interest grows
- ETF expectations: Asset management giants such as BlackRock are evaluating the feasibility of Solana ETF, which, if approved, will bring in billions of dollars in incremental funds.
- Corporate Cooperation: Solana Labs reached payment agreements with Visa and Shopify to promote the application of SOL as a settlement currency.
3. Macroeconomic benefits
The United States suspended additional tariffs on 200 trading partners, and risk asset appetite rebounded. The total market value of cryptocurrencies increased by 1.41% in a single week, and Bitcoin stood above $81,000, creating an environment for altcoins to rebound.
IV. Challenges and risks: Headwinds that cannot be ignored
1. FTX liquidation shock
The $800 million asset sell-off (about 49 million SOL) launched on May 30 may trigger a short-term liquidity crisis. If the market is unable to sustain the liquidity, SOL may fall back to the $100 support.
2. Intensified competition
The Ethereum 2.0 upgrade and Avalanche subnet technology divert developer resources, and emerging protocols such as Mutuum Finance compete for market share through token economic models. SOL needs to continue to innovate to maintain its advantage.
3. Regulatory uncertainty
The U.S. SEC has not yet clearly defined “security tokens”. If SOL is included in the regulatory scope, its exchange liquidity may be restricted.
5. Price prediction: Is $200 within reach?
1. Short term (this week)
Technically, SOL needs to break through the $130 resistance and stabilize before it can hit $150. If the Firedancer testnet progresses positively or institutional buying signals strengthen, the probability of a breakthrough this week will rise to 60%.
2. Mid-term (Q2)
After successfully digesting the selling pressure of FTX, SOL may start the main uptrend, with a target of 180-200 US dollars. This range corresponds to the 0.5 Fibonacci level of the retracement from the high point in 2024, and it is expected to challenge 263 US dollars after breaking through.
3. Long term (end of 2025)
Under the optimistic scenario (continuation of the bull market + ecological explosion), SOL may reach US$400; the conservative forecast is to maintain it in the range of US$250-300, corresponding to 30% of Ethereum's market value.
6. Conclusion: A breakthrough is imminent, but beware of volatility
Solana's technical repair and ecological recovery lay the foundation for its impact on $200, but FTX liquidation and macro fluctuations are still the biggest variables in the short term. Investors can pay attention to the following signals:
1. $130 breakout validity: Three consecutive closing prices above this level are required.
2. Trading volume: Daily trading volume must exceed $6 billion to confirm the trend.
3. FTX selling rhythm: If liquidation is delayed or carried out in batches, the market impact may be weakened.
In summary, the probability of SOL breaking through $200 this week is about 40%, but if the macro environment resonates with the technical side, the possibility of achieving this goal by the end of Q2 will increase significantly. Given the high volatility of the crypto market, position management and risk hedging remain key strategies.
