$XRP ’s recent 30% rebound from a four-month low of $1.61 to $2.08 may be running out of steam, as both technical and on-chain signals now point toward a significant correction.

🔻 Inverse Cup-and-Handle Forming

XRP is developing a bearish inverse cup-and-handle pattern, which suggests a potential 40% decline toward $1.24. This level aligns closely with the 200-3D EMA (~$1.28) and previous resistance from late 2024 — making it a critical zone to watch.

If XRP breaks below its neckline support near $2, the pattern would confirm, potentially triggering an accelerated selloff.

📉 Market Fractals and Realized Price Signal More Pain

Historically, XRP tends to retrace to its realized price — the average price at which the supply was last moved — after large rallies. Currently, that price sits around $1, implying a 50% downside from present levels.

Moreover, over 80% of XRP holders are in profit, a level that has historically preceded major rounds of profit-taking, especially during cycle tops.

🧠 Sentiment Worsening


According to Polymarket, the odds of XRP reaching a new all-time high above $3.55 before 2026 have dropped to just 35%, down sharply from March. This shift reflects waning investor confidence amid global macro headwinds and fading momentum in crypto markets overall.

🧭 Outlook

Unless XRP can reclaim and hold above key resistance levels soon, it may be heading into a deeper correction, revisiting its realized price around $1 — or even testing its 200-week EMA near $0.81 if bearish momentum continues.

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