• RSI & Relateds - cooled off, hinting at a potential new growth wave
• Price is still holding above the 50MA — a level $BTC broke above back in spring 2023 and hasn’t dipped below since.
But it’s not that simple...
Crypto remains highly correlated with the stock market due to global economic instability.
Looking at the Philly Fed Index, it seems like a U.S. recession is starting:
- Business Activity, New Orders, and Housing starts have all taken a sharp downturn.
On top of that, the trade war is in full swing, and it’s impacting $BTC more than ever.
I reviewed the opinions of several experts and analysts—here's how they assess the possible outcomes:
➜ 10% chance – Tariff talks start soon
➜ 20% chance – Markets rally as US gains Japan's support; S&P ➜ 5900
➜ 30% chance – Recession hits; S&P falls to 4200, altcoins drop 50%, $BTC hits $60-70k.
➜ 40% chance – Tariffs lifted, but damage done; S&P drops to 4800, recovery possible.
That said, today’s analysts tend to change their minds after every headline — so I wouldn’t take their predictions too seriously.
Like I’ve mentioned before: we first need to pile up more negative catalysts. That way, resolving each of them can become a new trigger for market growth. Only when the economic shocks are behind us will we see the next real wave.
What are you expecting from the market by the end of the year?
