$ETH Trump has recently publicly pressured Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, demanding "rapid and significant interest rate cuts to save the economy." This has raised concerns in the market about the politicization of monetary policy. If the Federal Reserve succumbs to pressure and cuts rates early, it could lead to a weakening of the dollar index, increasing demand for Bitcoin and other crypto assets as hedging tools. Historical data shows that during the period in 2019 when Trump pressured for interest rate cuts, BTC saw a monthly increase of 32%, while ETH rose by 45% in the same period. The current market has priced in a 70% probability of a rate cut in September; if the policy is implemented, the crypto market may replicate a "liquidity easing trend." However, risks need to be monitored: 1) Political interference undermines the independence of the Federal Reserve, increasing policy uncertainty; 2) If rate cuts trigger a rebound in inflation, it may lead to a secondary sell-off of risk assets. In the short term, it is advisable to pay attention to changes in the ETH/BTC exchange rate, as a breakout above 0.05 would signal the start of the altcoin season.
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