#加密市场季度观察

In the second quarter of 2025, the cryptocurrency market presents a pattern of "ice and fire." Affected by the escalation of global tariff policies and macroeconomic uncertainties, the total market capitalization of altcoins has plummeted by 41% from the peak in December 2024, with venture capital shrinking by 50%-60%. Market sentiment is low, and it is widely regarded as entering the "cryptocurrency winter 2.0" phase. However, Solana (SOL) breaks through against the trend, benefiting from the high-performance performance of 100,000 TPS after the Firedancer upgrade and the favorable policy of the U.S. "digital gold strategy" incorporating it into national reserves, with SOL's on-chain trading volume and ecological TVL growing over 120% month-on-month, becoming one of the few bright assets.

In terms of institutional movements, institutions like VanEck are accelerating the layout of spot SOL ETF applications, coupled with the policy bonus of Japan reducing cryptocurrency tax rates from 55% to 20%, promoting compliance processes and expectations of capital inflow. The market generally expects that with the deepening of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle and the clarification of geopolitical policies, the third quarter of 2025 may welcome a structural rebound. If Bitcoin breaks through the key support level of $85,000, it is expected to drive the recovery of market sentiment. In the short term, it is recommended to have a defensive allocation, focusing on AI + blockchain, modular public chains, and other tracks, while being wary of the risks of meme coin bubble bursts.