China has stopped buying liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States, halting shipments for over ten weeks and extending the effects of the Sino-American trade conflict to energy supplies.

Since a 69,000-ton tank from Corpus Christi, Texas, arrived in the southeastern province of Fujian on February 6, no other U.S. LNG vessel has docked in China.

A second ship bound for the mainland changed course to Bangladesh after failing to arrive before Beijing's 15% tariff on U.S. LNG took effect on February 10. That tax has since increased to 49%, making the fuel uneconomical for Chinese buyers in the foreseeable future.

The pause repeats a one-year blockade of U.S. LNG during Donald Trump's first term. Analysts say that the latest standoff could have broader consequences, bringing China closer to Russian supplies and clouding the prospects of the multibillion-dollar export terminals now being built in the United States and Mexico.

"There will be long-term consequences," said Anne-Sophie Corbeau, a natural gas specialist at Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy. "I don't think Chinese LNG importers will ever contract new LNG from the U.S."

China already takes only a small portion of its LNG from the United States. After Russia's large-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Chinese companies found it more profitable to resell U.S. shipments to Europe. Last year, only 6% of China's LNG imports came from U.S. plants, down from 11% in 2021.

Still, Chinese groups, including PetroChina and Sinopec, have 13 long-term contracts for U.S. LNG extending to 2049. Those purchase agreements were crucial for financing new projects on the Gulf Coast, but developers have recently tried to renegotiate terms to reflect higher inflation and the burden of Chinese tariffs.

Beijing, meanwhile, is turning to Moscow.

In the short term, few expect trade to resume. "The last time this happened, there was a complete halt until Chinese authorities granted exemptions to companies, but that was at a time when gas demand was booming," said Gillian Boccara, a Kpler analyst. "Now we are seeing lower economic growth, and we think the Chinese can endure the loss of these shipments for quite some time."

China's ambassador to Russia, Zhang Hanhui, said this week that Chinese buyers were eager to increase purchases of Russian LNG. "Many buyers are asking the embassy to help establish contacts with Russian suppliers, I believe there will definitely be more [imports]," Zhang told reporters.

Russia is already China's third-largest LNG supplier, behind Australia and Qatar, and the two governments are negotiating a second cross-border pipeline, Power of Siberia 2.

"With tariffs rising to the level where they are an effective embargo, we will see a reshuffling of trade flows," said Richard Bronze of the consultancy Energy Aspects.

"We also expect demand in Asia to fall by five to ten million tons overall. That should reduce gas prices in Europe a bit."

For now, empty arrival records at Chinese ports underscore the practical impact of tariffs that turned U.S. LNG from a growing trade into a stranded shipment, while giving Russia another chance in Asia's largest gas market.

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