Recently, due to the U.S. observing Good Friday and Easter, the U.S. stock market will not trade from April 18 to 21. The cryptocurrency market is closely linked to U.S. funds, and during this holiday, the market may stabilize temporarily.
Currently, the direction of the cryptocurrency market has two main clues: one is explicit, and the other is implicit.
Explicit story: Economic policies and tariff turmoil
Recently, everyone has been speculating whether the Federal Reserve will shift from tightening economic policies to easing them. At this moment, Trump proposed to impose global tariffs, which is a significant event that can influence the direction of the global economy.
Several forces are at play: the first is between the U.S. and other countries; the second is between the U.S. and China; the third is between the U.S. and the European Union; the fourth is within the U.S., where Trump and Powell have different thoughts.
The first three points are actually related to tariff negotiations. Although it seems that most bad news has already come out, Trump is quite capable of stirring things up and may make matters worse.
As for the differences between Trump and Powell regarding interest rate cuts, I'll share my views. On the surface, the two stand on different positions, and neither of their approaches is wrong.
From a Chinese perspective, Trump is a very contradictory person; either he genuinely wants to be a national hero and make America strong again, or he is using power to help his allies profit. Currently, his good side has not yet emerged, but the side that stirs the market for profit has already been felt by everyone.
On Powell's side, I agree with one viewpoint: don't always think he has some conspiracy, and don't just look at market prediction data. In the past two or three years, every time the market opposed the Federal Reserve, it ultimately lost. From Powell's speech the other day, it can be seen that he speaks and acts quite straightforwardly, saying one is one.
So my suggestion is:
- Don't believe everything Trump says; keep your guard up. He changes quickly; he might say to go long one moment and go short the next.
- What Powell says can be trusted; don't guess what hidden thoughts he might have. Based on past experiences, what he believes will not change easily.
Implicit story: Changes in the world order
Now, the world order may be undergoing significant changes, shifting from 'one superpower and multiple strong nations' to multipolarity, with trends of anti-globalization also beginning to emerge. This matter has just started and may last a long time, possibly throughout our lives, so I won't elaborate on it here.
Simply put, the globalization era we are familiar with may be coming to an end, and many new situations will arise in the future.
There are also two other things worth noting:
1. Recently, the stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets have not been doing well, but apart from gold, people cannot find better investment options. In short, the global economy is not doing well, and everyone is 'competing to see who is worse.'
2. The decline in the stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets has also reminded us. As the United States may undergo changes in its international status, the value of the U.S. stock market may need to be reassessed.