Predicting when the stock market will return to a bull market or continue in a bear market is a complex issue, as the stock market is influenced by various factors, including economic conditions, policy adjustments, market sentiment, and more. According to historical data and expert analysis, the A-share market does exhibit cyclical characteristics of alternating bull and bear markets, but the specific timing of each bull-bear transition is difficult to predict accurately. #Metaplanet增持比特币

1. Historical Bull-Bear Cycles:

• The A-share market has experienced a total of ten bear markets in history, and is currently in the eleventh round of bear markets.

• Among the previous ten bear markets, the longest lasted for over four years.

• The current bear market began in June 2015 and has exceeded four years, approaching the historical longest cycle.

• The duration of bull markets is gradually shortening, while the bear market cycles are lengthening.

2. Current Market Conditions:

• Although the index is at 2800 points, the actual level may be lower, nearing the valuation bottom.

• A policy bottom has emerged, and the market may be in a bottom area.

• There is a lack of significant improvement in fundamental factors, such as new stock issuance, stamp duty adjustments, etc.

3. Conditions for Bull Market Return:

• The market needs positive changes in fundamentals, such as economic recovery and improvement in corporate profits.

• Policy measures may require stronger favorable actions, such as exemptions on stamp duty and restrictions on shareholder sell-offs.

• The introduction of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board has brought new opportunities, but in the short term, it may divert funds, increasing market uncertainty. #巨鲸动向

4. Uncertain Factors:

• Economic cyclical adjustments may affect corporate profits and market confidence.

• The effectiveness of technological innovation and policy reforms needs time for validation.

• The global economic environment and international situation also have a significant impact on the A-share market. In conclusion, although the current market may be in a bottom area, the return of a bull market still requires improvements in fundamentals and further policy support. Investors should remain patient, keep an eye on market dynamics, and manage risks effectively.

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