#PowellRemarks Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently delivered remarks on the economic outlook at the Economic Club of Chicago. Here are the key points from his speech ¹:
Economic Outlook
- The US economy is in a solid position despite heightened uncertainty and downside risks.
- The labor market is at or near maximum employment, with low layoffs and stable unemployment rates.
- Inflation has eased from pandemic highs but remains above the 2% objective, with recent readings showing 2.3% growth in total PCE prices and 2.6% in core PCE prices.
Monetary Policy
- The Fed will balance maximum employment and price stability mandates.
- Tariffs are likely to generate a temporary rise in inflation, and the Fed will monitor incoming data to assess the implications for monetary policy.
- The Fed aims to keep longer-term inflation expectations well-anchored and prevent a one-time price increase from becoming an ongoing inflation problem.
Challenges Ahead
- The new Administration's policy changes, including trade, immigration, fiscal policy, and regulation, will have uncertain effects on the economy.
- The level of tariff increases announced so far is significantly larger than anticipated, which could lead to higher inflation and slower growth.
Fed's Response
- The Fed will continue to analyze incoming data and update its assessment as needed.
- For now, the economy is well-positioned to wait for greater clarity before considering any adjustments to the policy stance.