What is the current situation in the cryptocurrency market? Bitcoin is playing dead around 83k while Ethereum is barely holding above 1500.

But beware! If Bitcoin breaks down below 83k, Ethereum will definitely crash below 1500. This recent drop is not fundamentally a problem of the cryptocurrency market itself, unless one of the following two situations occurs:

1. Trump suddenly announces the cancellation of the trade war

2. Powell cuts interest rates ahead of schedule

Otherwise, is a big surge possible? Only in dreams! Recently, keep a close eye on two signals: the progress of tariffs and Trump's Twitter.

Is there still hope for this year? The key depends on how the Federal Reserve plays with interest rate cuts:

Rate cut ≤ 1 time → At most a dead cat bounce, full-year bear market guaranteed

Rate cut 2 times → A small bull market can last a few months

Rate cut ≥ 3 times → Prepare to welcome a wild bull market

Right now, market liquidity is almost exhausted, and on the surface, it seems to be caused by tariffs, but in reality, it is the aftereffects of the "Trump trade." Even worse are altcoins—trust collapse + liquidity crisis, without a nuclear-level positive news, they can't get back up.