Price: $1,602.09, short-term moving averages (MA5=1,598.20, MA10=1,591.33) are in a bullish arrangement, but MA30 (1,581.96) is still at a certain distance, indicating a short-term bullish trend but not completely out of the consolidation range.

Key resistance: 1,611.59 (recent high), 1,629.98 (BOLL middle track).

Key support: 1,598.20 (MA5), 1,591.33 (MA10), 1,581.96 (MA30).

Short-term trend is bullish but needs to break 1,611.59 to confirm further upward movement.

Trading opportunity analysis

Bullish opportunity

Entry conditions

Price stabilizes at 1,602 and breaks 1,611.59, accompanied by increased trading volume (current VOL=1,416, far below MA5 average volume 33,871, needs to increase).

MACD (DIF=2.54, DEA=-0.94) golden cross and histogram (3.49) continues to expand.

Target

First target: 1,629.98 (BOLL middle track).

Second target: 1,691.66 (MA long-term resistance).

Stop loss below 1,598 (MA5 support).

Success rate about 60% (needs volume to support, otherwise prone to false breakouts).

Bearish opportunity

Entry conditions

Price breaks below 1,598 (MA5) and fails to retest, MACD death cross (DIF crosses below DEA).

If it breaks below 1,591 (MA10), the bearish signal strengthens.

Target

First target: 1,581.96 (MA30).

Second target: 1,536.21 (recent low).

Stop loss above 1,602 (previous support turned resistance).

Success rate about 55% (need to observe if the downward momentum continues).

Risk warning

False breakout risk

Current trading volume is extremely low (1,416 vs MA5 average volume 33,871), if it breaks 1,611 with low volume, it may quickly pull back.

Response Strategy: Wait for a pullback confirmation (e.g., if it breaks and pulls back to 1,602 without breaking) before entering.

Central consolidation continues

If the price continues to fluctuate between 1,598-1,611, trading opportunities are limited and prone to repeated stop losses.

Response strategy: watch or reduce positions, waiting for a breakout.

Indicator divergence risk

RSI (14)=-19, KDJ (K=47, D=30, J=14) shows oversold recovery, but MACD has not yet confirmed strength.

Response strategy: combine price with MACD synchronization to avoid counter-trend operations.

Evaluation of Success Rate and Profit/Loss Ratio

| Direction | Success Rate | Profit/Loss Ratio | Suitable Strategy

| Bullish | 60% | 1:2 | Chase long on breakout |

| Bearish | 55% | 1:1.5 | Short on bounce |

Key operation suggestions

Best opportunity: wait for price to break 1,611.59 with volume and pull back to go long, or break below 1,598 and retest to go short.

Current ETH is in a bullish consolidation on the hourly level, but needs volume confirmation for direction.

High probability opportunity: go long on pullback after breaking 1,611 (stop loss 1,598, target 1,629+).

High-risk area: chasing price up and down within the 1,598-1,611 range (prone to being washed out).