#PowellRemarks

Based on the recent statements and economic context provided in the search results, here’s what Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is likely to emphasize in his upcoming speech at the Economic Club of Chicago, given the heightened geopolitical and economic tensions:

### 1. **Wait-and-See Stance on Rates**

Powell will likely reiterate the Fed’s cautious approach, emphasizing the need for "greater clarity" before adjusting interest rates. He has repeatedly stated that the Fed is "well positioned to wait" amid elevated uncertainty from tariffs and their inflationary/growth impacts . Markets should not expect immediate rate cuts unless hard data (e.g., labor market weakening or inflation dropping sharply) forces the Fed’s hand.

### 2. **Tariffs’ Dual Threat: Inflation and Growth Slowdown**

Powell has consistently warned that Trump’s tariffs are "larger than expected" and will likely cause:

- **Higher inflation**: Temporary or persistent price spikes, especially if supply chain disruptions (like China’s cargo suspension) exacerbate shortages .

- **Slower growth**: Reduced consumer spending and business investment due to higher costs and trade retaliation .

He may note that near-term inflation expectations have already risen due to tariffs, though longer-term expectations remain anchored .