Bitcoin $84,500 Life and Death Line! Bitcoin caught in a long and short meat grinder: $1 billion options showdown, million liquidation warning, traders urgently deploy 'asymmetric hedging'
#Bitcoin Long and Short Strangle #Options Giants Battle #Liquidation Alert 2025 #On-chain Data Revealed #Trader Survival Guide
When $1 billion bets on 'The $100,000 Carnival', the $70,000 put option has already set up the sniper—this is a 'cognitive hunting' by institutions against retail investors.
On April 17, 2025, Bitcoin's price remained at $84,500, with a 12% amplitude over the past 7 days, and total contract liquidation exceeded $2.8 billion. This oscillation is by no means accidental, but the result of multiple forces contending:
I. Technical Perspective: Weekly 'Evening Star' Warning vs Daily 'False Breakout' Trap
Weekly Life and Death Situation
If the closing price this week is below $84,000, it will form a 'evening star' pattern, triggering quantitative funds to sell programmatically, targeting $78,000. Conversely, if it stabilizes above $86,000, it may test the strong resistance area of $88,000-$90,000, where $1.2 billion in call options are outstanding; a breakout requires substantial buying support.
Daily 'Dog Fight Tactics'
Short-term support at $83,500 (April 16 low), resistance at $86,000 (50-day EMA). Beware of the main force using 'pinning' to clean up leverage:
Bull Trap: Rapid rise to $86,000 followed by a dump, triggering $637 million in forced liquidation of long positions;
Bear Trap: Rapid drop to $83,000 followed by a rebound, trapping $70,000 put option holders.
II. On-chain Underflow: Miner Exodus and Whale Bottom Fishing
Miner Selling Pressure Intensifies
Total network computing power has dropped by 20%, miners sold 15,000 BTC (approximately $127 million) in a single day, with cost lines concentrated between $78,000 and $82,000. If the price falls below this range, it will trigger a larger-scale capitulation sell-off.
Whales 'Segmented Accumulation'
Whalemap on-chain data shows that $36,000-$37,000 (historical support) and $48,500 (macro reversal point) are the core focus areas for whales. At the current price, whales tend to wait and observe for clear signals.
III. Options Battlefield: $1 billion bets on 'The $100,000 Carnival'
Long and Short Chip Distribution
Bull Camp: $100,000 call options outstanding at $1.2 billion, betting on policy benefits driving a breakout;
Bear Line: $70,000 put options outstanding at $982 million, hedging 'black swan' risks.
Volatility Premium Strategy
Professional traders are building a 'straddle':
Sell $84,000 put options + sell $88,000 call options to harvest the time value of the oscillating market;
Buy $85,000 put options to hedge against downside break risk.
IV. Macro Variables: Tariff Exemption 'Short Long, Long Short' Paradox
Policy Dividend Period
Temporary suspension of technology product tariffs drives U.S. Treasury yields down, funds flow back to risk assets, and Bitcoin benefits short-term from 'liquidity illusion'.
Long-term Concerns
If Trump resumes a 125% tariff on China, global supply chain disruptions will drive up inflation, forcing the Fed to delay interest rate cuts, suppressing Bitcoin valuations.
V. Trader Action Guide
Spot Players
Reduce positions to 50% if below $83,500, take partial profits if it rebounds to $88,000;
Allocate 10% of positions to BTC mining company stocks (like MARA, RIOT) to hedge against price fluctuations.
Contract Gamblers
Leverage ≤ 5x, stop loss set 2% below $83,000;
Avoid holding overnight positions to prevent 'tariff Twitter ambush'.
Institutional Thinking
Buy Bitcoin Bonds (BitBonds), 90% U.S. Treasuries + 10% Bitcoin, capture asymmetric returns;
Layout stablecoin treasury bond arbitrage, utilizing USDC 2% annualized and 4.4% spread with U.S. Treasuries.
"When the market trembles at $84,500, remember: volatility is not risk but a breeding ground for excess returns. The key is whose chips you stand on."
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