Bitcoin hovered around $84,000 when Wall Street opened on April 16 amid hopes that a weak USD would drive a return to a bullish market.
Analysis shows that the price increase in 2023 will repeat
Data from TradingView shows BTC/USD is consolidating after a rapid decline from the previous day's local peak.
Volatility accompanies tense developments in the U.S.-China trade war, with cryptocurrencies and risk assets still sensitive to statements from U.S. President Donald Trump.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indices fell by 1.4% and 2.2% respectively yesterday.
Gold remains the winner, setting a new record high above $3,300 an ounce.
“Unlike gold, BTC is not receiving a safe-haven buy greeting,” trading firm QCP Capital summarized in the latest newsletter sent to Telegram channel subscribers.
“The story of ‘store of value’ is not attracting attention in the current macro situation. The position remains defensive. Participants are still focused on hedging risks until there is more clarity.”
To seek potential bullish momentum, market participants are focused on the USD's inability to reclaim previous support levels after a sharp decline since the trade war started.
The U.S. dollar index (DXY) fluctuates near multi-year lows after rejecting the psychological landmark of 100.
“DXY is falling at the fastest pace since 2023,” trader BitBull told followers in a post on X.
BitBull compared it to BTC's price performance at that time, with early 2023 witnessing Bitcoin and altcoins escaping the depths of the 2022 bear market.
“BTC bottomed out in Q4 2022 and continued to rise over 200% within a year. It's time for BTC to repeat the price increase in 2023-24.”
Meanwhile, Andre Dragosch, head of research for the European region at asset management firm Bitwise, marked Goldman Sachs' report, indicating that DXY will continue to decline.
“NOTE: according to Goldman Sachs, the USD is still overvalued,” he commented along with a chart of USD strength compared to U.S. growth performance.
“USD could continue to depreciate = bullish potential for BTC.”
BTC shows cautious bullish signals
Bitcoin traders have been eyeing several positive signals, including the potential for a bottom formation on the 4-hour chart.
“A reverse head and shoulders pattern is forming on the 4-hour timeframe if we can hold a higher low in the coming days,” trader Luca suggested.
Trader, analyst, and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe hopes for a retest of new resistance levels; for him, this is one of the two main areas that people need to pay attention to.
“Bitcoin is still consolidating well between these two levels,” he concluded.
“The test of the $87,000 level has occurred, and we will see a big breakout when BTC retests it again. What's next? Likely a bounce towards ATH by the end of this quarter.”
