What you think in the short to medium term is not important; what the market thinks is most important.

Once you trade to a certain depth, you will come to realize this experience: even if you predict that a certain stock will decline in the long term, as long as the entire market currently believes it will rise and is pushing it up, your best strategy is to go along with this trend (consensus) for a while and then withdraw in time before this erroneous trend collapses.